Auto industry bail-out in America is stupid!

The proposed Auto industry bail-out in America is a form of welfare at best. If 3 million workers are in an eminent danger of loosing their jobs, it is better to extend their unemployment benefits. Trying to save an old legacy is short-sighted and regressive. It is a political dynamite but that is why an enlightened leadership is so badly required in this country. I have written my Master’s Thesis on the same subject and I predicted in 1993 that American Automobile Industry is sick and must be allowed to die gradually in the interest of a healthy corporate sector. The 1980 bail-out of Chrysler Corp. by President Carter was stupid then as is now, and the politicians have learnt nothing. This whole drama is not much different from the ones perpetuated in former Soviet Union or Communist China. The American automobile companies have been inefficient for decades. The management of these companies has been even worse. For only political reasons, these behemoths have been allowed to drag-along for more than three decades. It is time to give them an honorable burial.

Ransom Eli Olds, a young automotive wizard from Lansing who began building Oldsmobiles in 1896, was the first to produce cars in Detroit, Michigan.

Would India face another Jimmy Carter?

Jimmy Carter’s presidency was lost in the mountains of Afghanistan. President Carter once again (1954-55 Baghdad Pact) identified Pakistan as a front-line state, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. He made a 180 degree turn on ‘American Foreign Policy’ and flooded Pakistan with sophisticated military assistance to fight the Soviet Invasion. This dramatic turnaround in US-Pakistan relations destroyed any chances of improved relations with India. The weapons supplied by Carter Administration to Pakistan are still being used against India in Kashmir insurgency. President-elect Barack Obama faces a similar situation. He has also identified Afghanistan-Pakistan as the main-front against terrorism. To achieve his goals of fighting terror in Afghanistan, Obama feels the US policy towards Pakistan has been misguided. He wants to develop civilian institutions in Pakistan and try to change the mind-set of a military-ruled society. Barack Obama also feels that to achieve any progress in Pakistan, their long-standing grievance against India on Kashmir has to be accommodated. Obama seems to have learnt nothing from his predecessors! When in America, never use the ‘N’ word, similarly talking about India-Pakistan; never use the ‘K’ word. Jimmy Carter never learnt a simple lesson; Obama might learn it too late! Loosing India for that would be too expensive for America.

Successive Democratic administrations in US have been very short-sighted and callous towards India since 1945. Barring the short-lived ‘Kennedy Administration’, they have all squandered the opportunity to develop healthy and mutually beneficial relations with the largest democracy in the world. Starting with President Harry Truman, through President Jimmy Carter, all US Presidents were preachy and hypocritical, when it came to dealing with India. Even the much-hyped Bill Clinton love-affair with India came at the end of his two-terms. President-elect Barack Obama is making similar noises! He was against Indo-US nuclear deal, before he voted in favour. He wants to facilitate Indo-Pakistan dialog on Kashmir before he understands that it would not only be still-born but be actually destructive, ask Bill Clinton! Obama has also been talking against out-sourcing to India and punishing corporate companies doing business with China and India. To cap it all he called 9 nations the day after getting elected and these did not include Brazil, Russia, India or China (BRIC). Not surprisingly, Israel was included in those 9 lucky countries! These small gestures are carefully watched around the world and have consequences.

George W Bush is the only US President since FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) who used his own brain while dealing with China or India. He is respected in both countries and has laid the foundations to build the most important relationships of the 21st century. China and India would account for 40 % of the world GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by the middle of this century. Asia as a whole would have 60% of the Gross Global Product by the same year. Europe and Middle-East belong to history, not the future. Barack Obama talks about change, this is no change! God forbid if he picks John Kerry or Bill Richardson for the position of next US Secretary of State. There are rumors that he might pick Caroline Kennedy as the next ambassador to the United Nations. If that happens, we would be eagerly waiting for the next four years to finish fast! The Democratic Party is loaded with left-leaning academics that have fancy theories but no pragmatic policy positions. Obama also has the strong propensity to socialize with American sounding ‘Desis’. This group has lot of money but very little understanding about India or the world. Stakes are very high and the time is short. Obama has a very fine brain but absolutely no experience.

Let us talk about President Obama’s administration…

The presumptive nominee of the Democratic party, Senator Barack Obama, is all set to be the next President of The United States of America. There appears to be little evidence to show that Senator John McCain (presumptive nominee of the Republican party) has any chance of winning this fall. If things change, we would then examine that situation. Before we reach the election, both candidates have to choose a running mate for the Vice Presidential (VP) spot on the ticket. As far as Obama is concerned, the test would be to see if he picks a loser. The list of losers in the Democratic party is very long. Staring with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Al Gore and the list goes on. The fact of the matter is that they are all losers and so bring nothing to the table. Besides, does Obama really need another person to deliver any state, come November?

The most sensible choice would be to pick a young person, between the age group of mid-forties to early fifties. Someone closer to his age, so that he really turns the page. Another ethnic or a female choice would be too much for the independent voter. A young white male away from the Washington crowd, some happy face, not threatening to his own persona, might be a good choice. Besides, a VP in Barack Obama administration would be like a potted plant in any case. Barack Obama and his ego can not accommodate another person to share the spot-light. He just needs to fulfill the constitutional requirement. This choice would show his character.

Once the general elections are over, the transition would be the most critical this time around. We have not seen such a fluid situation in a generation. When George Herbert Walker Bush took over from Ronald Reagan, he was the Vice President and did not need a transition. Bill Clinton took over from an angry George H W Bush and the transition was at best not ugly. The situation in January 1993 was placid except for the economy. International situation was not bad, except for Bosnia. Bill Clinton’s first term was a disaster in terms of foreign policy. The reason was simple, he and his administration had no reasonable transition and Bill Clinton packed his State Department with the left-overs of Jimmy Carter.

George W Bush took over from Bill Clinton in January 2001 with an open contempt for the previous administration. George W Bush was not only cocky, he brought the whole neo-con movement with him. Economy was good and the international situation appeared calm and under control. Bill Clinton and his State Department knew better. They warned the incoming administration of a very dangerous movement i.e. Al-Qaeda. No one was listening. Dick Cheney (Vice President) and Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense) were like the two old ‘Hooligans‘ who got excess to a candy store without supervision. Condoleezza Rice (National Security Advisor) was like the ‘Bimbo‘ who got her first date. She threw the file on ‘National Security’ in the bottom drawer. The result is in front of you. She never accepted the blame for it.

Today, the situation is far worse than 1981 when President Reagan took over from President Carter. Economy is in recession whether you admit it or not, inflation is leaping forward, energy crisis is looming large and America is at war on two fronts. The third war with Iran is being promoted by the neo-cons again. Our reputation around the world is in shambles. Who is the best person to help the new administration? The answer is the current President George W Bush. If Barack Obama is the next President Elect, he would need all the help he could get from the incumbent. There is no better consul that Obama could seek from than the man who created the situation in the first place. The next President of The United States would need the current President of The United States to facilitate the transition. A candidate that magnanimous should be our next President.

Charles Hagel is probably the best candidate to be the next Secretary of State. The senior United States Senator from Nebraska would be 62 years old in October this year. Hagel is not only a moderate Republican but I would call him an independent. His demeanor is better than Joe Biden’s and he is less mouthy, a definite qualification in the current situation. Besides, Chuck Hagel has the least amount of ego, an important attribute for Obama administration. Fareed Zakaria could be considered as a deputy to Hagel. Many have suggested that the Republican Senator from Nebraska could be a vice president pick. That is simply impractical because the Democratic Party would revolt. A complete over-haul of the State Department is long over-due. Barack Obama keeps talking about a need to change the mind-set in Washington. Nowhere is the need more acute than in the Department of State of the United States of America. Another important addition to the State Department should be an increase of Political Appointees at the rank of Deputy Secretaries of State rather than having just one. Career diplomats are too dangerous and often irresponsible. The world has changed and United States can not afford a low level engagement with countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran and Mexico.

The primary job of the President of The United States is the National Security, Foreign Affairs, Trade and then the Economy. Because of the domestic compulsions, the candidates talk about economy and jobs the most. They also keep talking about the Health Care, Education, Environment and Immigration. These are largely the responsibilities of the States and The Congress. Once the new President takes office, he gets over-whelmed by the world-events. The next President must be cognizant of this fact and use the small window available to him in the first few months of his first year in office. The time to discuss all this is, NOW.