A divided government is a better government!

Can you imagine the kind of stimulus package a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in Senate would have produced? Looking at the house version of this bill, few would have actually seen the pork loaded in the final bill. The American democracy is meant to be a divided house. If you see the legacy of Thomas Jefferson, you must never forget the one of John Adams. Do you know why George W Bush or Dick Cheney never had a chance of being impeached by the congress? The Republicans did everything in concert with enough Democrats to hang them at will. President Barack Obama is lucky that he does not have a filibuster-proof Democratic Senate. The liberals in his party are as dangerous as the neo-cons of the Republican Party.

Barack Obama would need at least a dozen Republican Senators to achieve something meaningful. The big question is where does Obama stand in his personal politics? Is he a liberal or a centrist like Bill Clinton? If the answer is latter than Obama would learn from this disaster and go on to setting his own agenda rather than depending on Nancy Pelosi and her minions. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, both are considered successful presidents in today’s context. George W Bush is regarded as a failure. Nobody really talks about his father George H W Bush. History might judge all four differently. It is too early to make any reasonable judgments!

President ‘O’ and the three white men!

While the first African-American President (son of an African father and an American mother) was getting ready to be sworn in, three white men tried their level best to steal the lime-light from him! First it was Dick Cheney who was riding-around in a wheelchair and got a lot of TV coverage. Who would have paid any attention to a ‘Dick’ otherwise? Next was the Chief Justice of the United States, John Roberts, who was supposed to administer the oath of office to the incoming President of the United States. Instead of carrying and reading from a cue-card Justice Roberts decided to be too smart and tried to recite from his memory. Seeing a sea of people in front of him he forgot the lines and screwed-up the oath of office. He also stole the lime-light from Barack Obama because of his stupidity. Imagine a Democrat-appointed Chief Justice doing the same thing to an incoming Republican President! Rush Limbaugh would have exploded in his studio and Sean Hannity would have jumped from the Fox Studio Tower on Sixth Avenue, Manhattan. Since it was the other way round, no problems for the so-called conservative jingoes! The third was our ever-green Ted Kennedy.

Sen. Edward Kennedy was rushed to the hospital Tuesday after collapsing during a congressional lunch to honor newly sworn-in President Barack Obama, though the Massachusetts Democrat remained conscious after suffering a seizure. Can you imagine the mood at the inauguration if the 76 years old Senator had kicked the bucket? There was another 91 years old white man who nearly drew as much attention and the above mentioned three. It was Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia who nearly collapsed with all the excitement around him. I am only sixty years old and the thought of attending an outdoor inauguration in such bone-chilling temperatures is not appealing at all. Here you have a 91 years old Senator who is confined to the wheelchair is still working in the Senate and who had the balls to attend the open-air swearing in ceremony, it is beyond belief! What really motivates these old fogies to stick to the glare of publicity is not easy to understand! An age limit of 75 may not be a bad idea for the Senate of the United States. Please THINK about it!

War with Pakistan must always be an option

Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee made a categorical statement that said, “War with Pakistan is not an option”. This kind of statement from the Foreign Minister of India undermines the diplomatic options that the country has against Pakistan. I would be surprised if a politician of Pranab’s stature would make this kind of a statement without the approval from the highest level. If that be the case India is not being served well by this administration. Our country certainly needs a relatively hawkish foreign policy specially when it comes to Pakistan!

Pakistan has maintained a rather uniform foreign policy not only towards India but around the world. Their intent notwithstanding, Pakistanis have a far more sophisticated foreign office compared to India. Ever since the signing of the ‘Baghdad Pact’ in 1955, Pakistan has played the role of a ‘frontline state’ for the Western Alliance. It has paid them handsome dividends. Pakistan has played this foreign policy card against India with the finesse of a consummate political player. India has since reacted angrily towards such manipulation but with little success!

America’s national security establishment is divided into two distinct groups. The first group is supposed to be the moderate wing (traditionalists) that considered Pakistan as the ‘Frontline State‘ against communism and now against ‘Islamic terrorism’. The second group that started as a progressive group under President Roosevelt has now turned more hawkish and is called the ‘neo-conservative’ gang. This second group of ‘neo-cons’ are very suspicious of Pakistan and want a full-fledged military alliance with India. This pro-India group has the blessings of the former secretary of state Dr Henry Kissinger but is now led by Dick Cheney and President George W Bush. Unfortunately for India, the Obama administration is likely to follow the first group. Senator John Kerry’s statement in India is a good indicator of that new policy!

India must stop relying on the United States for its own foreign policy especially concerning Pakistan. President-elect Barack Obama is likely to make the same mistakes the former President Bill Clinton made. His administration is going to pussy-foot Pakistan’s ‘terror insurance’ doctrine and India is bound to pay the price as usual. It is incumbent upon India’s foreign policy establishment to learn from past and develop a robust and independent foreign policy. Pakistan must be made to understand that India reserves the right to make surgical strikes inside their territory to take out the terrorist establishments. This option must be credible enough.

Let us talk about President Obama’s administration…

The presumptive nominee of the Democratic party, Senator Barack Obama, is all set to be the next President of The United States of America. There appears to be little evidence to show that Senator John McCain (presumptive nominee of the Republican party) has any chance of winning this fall. If things change, we would then examine that situation. Before we reach the election, both candidates have to choose a running mate for the Vice Presidential (VP) spot on the ticket. As far as Obama is concerned, the test would be to see if he picks a loser. The list of losers in the Democratic party is very long. Staring with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Al Gore and the list goes on. The fact of the matter is that they are all losers and so bring nothing to the table. Besides, does Obama really need another person to deliver any state, come November?

The most sensible choice would be to pick a young person, between the age group of mid-forties to early fifties. Someone closer to his age, so that he really turns the page. Another ethnic or a female choice would be too much for the independent voter. A young white male away from the Washington crowd, some happy face, not threatening to his own persona, might be a good choice. Besides, a VP in Barack Obama administration would be like a potted plant in any case. Barack Obama and his ego can not accommodate another person to share the spot-light. He just needs to fulfill the constitutional requirement. This choice would show his character.

Once the general elections are over, the transition would be the most critical this time around. We have not seen such a fluid situation in a generation. When George Herbert Walker Bush took over from Ronald Reagan, he was the Vice President and did not need a transition. Bill Clinton took over from an angry George H W Bush and the transition was at best not ugly. The situation in January 1993 was placid except for the economy. International situation was not bad, except for Bosnia. Bill Clinton’s first term was a disaster in terms of foreign policy. The reason was simple, he and his administration had no reasonable transition and Bill Clinton packed his State Department with the left-overs of Jimmy Carter.

George W Bush took over from Bill Clinton in January 2001 with an open contempt for the previous administration. George W Bush was not only cocky, he brought the whole neo-con movement with him. Economy was good and the international situation appeared calm and under control. Bill Clinton and his State Department knew better. They warned the incoming administration of a very dangerous movement i.e. Al-Qaeda. No one was listening. Dick Cheney (Vice President) and Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense) were like the two old ‘Hooligans‘ who got excess to a candy store without supervision. Condoleezza Rice (National Security Advisor) was like the ‘Bimbo‘ who got her first date. She threw the file on ‘National Security’ in the bottom drawer. The result is in front of you. She never accepted the blame for it.

Today, the situation is far worse than 1981 when President Reagan took over from President Carter. Economy is in recession whether you admit it or not, inflation is leaping forward, energy crisis is looming large and America is at war on two fronts. The third war with Iran is being promoted by the neo-cons again. Our reputation around the world is in shambles. Who is the best person to help the new administration? The answer is the current President George W Bush. If Barack Obama is the next President Elect, he would need all the help he could get from the incumbent. There is no better consul that Obama could seek from than the man who created the situation in the first place. The next President of The United States would need the current President of The United States to facilitate the transition. A candidate that magnanimous should be our next President.

Charles Hagel is probably the best candidate to be the next Secretary of State. The senior United States Senator from Nebraska would be 62 years old in October this year. Hagel is not only a moderate Republican but I would call him an independent. His demeanor is better than Joe Biden’s and he is less mouthy, a definite qualification in the current situation. Besides, Chuck Hagel has the least amount of ego, an important attribute for Obama administration. Fareed Zakaria could be considered as a deputy to Hagel. Many have suggested that the Republican Senator from Nebraska could be a vice president pick. That is simply impractical because the Democratic Party would revolt. A complete over-haul of the State Department is long over-due. Barack Obama keeps talking about a need to change the mind-set in Washington. Nowhere is the need more acute than in the Department of State of the United States of America. Another important addition to the State Department should be an increase of Political Appointees at the rank of Deputy Secretaries of State rather than having just one. Career diplomats are too dangerous and often irresponsible. The world has changed and United States can not afford a low level engagement with countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran and Mexico.

The primary job of the President of The United States is the National Security, Foreign Affairs, Trade and then the Economy. Because of the domestic compulsions, the candidates talk about economy and jobs the most. They also keep talking about the Health Care, Education, Environment and Immigration. These are largely the responsibilities of the States and The Congress. Once the new President takes office, he gets over-whelmed by the world-events. The next President must be cognizant of this fact and use the small window available to him in the first few months of his first year in office. The time to discuss all this is, NOW.