Can Obama look beyond the Middle East?

The Barack Obama model is very attractive for the third-world. A highly educated, almost cerebral candidate with exceptional oratory skills can rise quickly to the political destination. This is not a bad deal for a country like India. Just imagine, 32 Barack Obama types of politicians rising in a state like Rajasthan, India. They can pull a backward state like Rajasthan into a contemporary India with solid ambitions and a high-tech methodology. But when it comes to the United States of America, ambition and technology are not enough. America is not just the leader of the free-world; it is the leader of the whole world. In such a situation, the President of the United States becomes the defacto leader of the world. It is a daunting challenge and requires a global vision. President-elect Obama is being compared to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt (FDR) since his election on November 4, 2008. No two leaders could be more different than Lincoln and Roosevelt. President Abraham Lincoln was an American leader, FDR was a global leader! Few people in this country have any understanding about Roosevelt’s knowledge about Europe and the rest of the world.

Barack Obama is very much like Lincoln. He could change the American mind-set forever. But Obama lacks the vision of FDR. He talks about Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, but rarely about Brazil, Russia, India and China. His choice of Joe Biden as his running-mate was driven by the crisis in Georgia, not by any strategic vision. His desire for Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State is driven more by some political calculation than any global initiative. Barack Obama is likely to be a domestic President like Bill Clinton. He is also being led into the quick-sands of middle-east, just like his predecessors. George W Bush has been no role-model for any future President of the United States but he refused to get involved in the ‘Israeli-Palestinian Conflict’. Bill Clinton on the other hand couldn’t see beyond Europe. He neglected Afghanistan-Pakistan situation and the rise of Taliban and Al-Qaeda, till it was too late in his Presidency. Basically, the Middle East and Europe (including the former Soviet Union) have consumed the US foreign policy for the past 40 years.

There are unprecedented opportunities for the next President of the United States of America in Africa, Asia and South America. There is a lot of work to be done in Australia, Canada and Russia. The Secretary of State like Hillary Clinton, John Kerry or Bill Richardson can not measure up to the huge challenge! Obama needs a Richard Lugar or Chuck Hagel with atleast 3 high-powered Deputy Secretaries of State to handle the enormous task ahead. China is loosing Pakistan to India and would therefore make push for Burma. South Africa and the ‘African Union’ could transform the whole continent into a vibrant market. Brazil is emerging as a docile super-power while Mexico drifts. Japan is almost forgotten these days and India remains a land of contradictions. There is plenty of young talent out there, ready to be noticed and engaged. The US State Department needs a fresh blood. Career diplomats are unable to break open the box. The last three Deputy Secretaries of State, Richard Armitage, Robert Zoellick and John Negroponte are all nationalistic ideologues and have not served this country well. Barack Obama appears to be unwilling to change the paradigm. Where is the much-hyped Change?

Charlie Rose – BARACK OBAMA (FROM 11/23/04)

Let us talk about President Obama’s administration…

The presumptive nominee of the Democratic party, Senator Barack Obama, is all set to be the next President of The United States of America. There appears to be little evidence to show that Senator John McCain (presumptive nominee of the Republican party) has any chance of winning this fall. If things change, we would then examine that situation. Before we reach the election, both candidates have to choose a running mate for the Vice Presidential (VP) spot on the ticket. As far as Obama is concerned, the test would be to see if he picks a loser. The list of losers in the Democratic party is very long. Staring with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Al Gore and the list goes on. The fact of the matter is that they are all losers and so bring nothing to the table. Besides, does Obama really need another person to deliver any state, come November?

The most sensible choice would be to pick a young person, between the age group of mid-forties to early fifties. Someone closer to his age, so that he really turns the page. Another ethnic or a female choice would be too much for the independent voter. A young white male away from the Washington crowd, some happy face, not threatening to his own persona, might be a good choice. Besides, a VP in Barack Obama administration would be like a potted plant in any case. Barack Obama and his ego can not accommodate another person to share the spot-light. He just needs to fulfill the constitutional requirement. This choice would show his character.

Once the general elections are over, the transition would be the most critical this time around. We have not seen such a fluid situation in a generation. When George Herbert Walker Bush took over from Ronald Reagan, he was the Vice President and did not need a transition. Bill Clinton took over from an angry George H W Bush and the transition was at best not ugly. The situation in January 1993 was placid except for the economy. International situation was not bad, except for Bosnia. Bill Clinton’s first term was a disaster in terms of foreign policy. The reason was simple, he and his administration had no reasonable transition and Bill Clinton packed his State Department with the left-overs of Jimmy Carter.

George W Bush took over from Bill Clinton in January 2001 with an open contempt for the previous administration. George W Bush was not only cocky, he brought the whole neo-con movement with him. Economy was good and the international situation appeared calm and under control. Bill Clinton and his State Department knew better. They warned the incoming administration of a very dangerous movement i.e. Al-Qaeda. No one was listening. Dick Cheney (Vice President) and Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense) were like the two old ‘Hooligans‘ who got excess to a candy store without supervision. Condoleezza Rice (National Security Advisor) was like the ‘Bimbo‘ who got her first date. She threw the file on ‘National Security’ in the bottom drawer. The result is in front of you. She never accepted the blame for it.

Today, the situation is far worse than 1981 when President Reagan took over from President Carter. Economy is in recession whether you admit it or not, inflation is leaping forward, energy crisis is looming large and America is at war on two fronts. The third war with Iran is being promoted by the neo-cons again. Our reputation around the world is in shambles. Who is the best person to help the new administration? The answer is the current President George W Bush. If Barack Obama is the next President Elect, he would need all the help he could get from the incumbent. There is no better consul that Obama could seek from than the man who created the situation in the first place. The next President of The United States would need the current President of The United States to facilitate the transition. A candidate that magnanimous should be our next President.

Charles Hagel is probably the best candidate to be the next Secretary of State. The senior United States Senator from Nebraska would be 62 years old in October this year. Hagel is not only a moderate Republican but I would call him an independent. His demeanor is better than Joe Biden’s and he is less mouthy, a definite qualification in the current situation. Besides, Chuck Hagel has the least amount of ego, an important attribute for Obama administration. Fareed Zakaria could be considered as a deputy to Hagel. Many have suggested that the Republican Senator from Nebraska could be a vice president pick. That is simply impractical because the Democratic Party would revolt. A complete over-haul of the State Department is long over-due. Barack Obama keeps talking about a need to change the mind-set in Washington. Nowhere is the need more acute than in the Department of State of the United States of America. Another important addition to the State Department should be an increase of Political Appointees at the rank of Deputy Secretaries of State rather than having just one. Career diplomats are too dangerous and often irresponsible. The world has changed and United States can not afford a low level engagement with countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran and Mexico.

The primary job of the President of The United States is the National Security, Foreign Affairs, Trade and then the Economy. Because of the domestic compulsions, the candidates talk about economy and jobs the most. They also keep talking about the Health Care, Education, Environment and Immigration. These are largely the responsibilities of the States and The Congress. Once the new President takes office, he gets over-whelmed by the world-events. The next President must be cognizant of this fact and use the small window available to him in the first few months of his first year in office. The time to discuss all this is, NOW.