Let us talk about President Obama’s administration…

The presumptive nominee of the Democratic party, Senator Barack Obama, is all set to be the next President of The United States of America. There appears to be little evidence to show that Senator John McCain (presumptive nominee of the Republican party) has any chance of winning this fall. If things change, we would then examine that situation. Before we reach the election, both candidates have to choose a running mate for the Vice Presidential (VP) spot on the ticket. As far as Obama is concerned, the test would be to see if he picks a loser. The list of losers in the Democratic party is very long. Staring with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Al Gore and the list goes on. The fact of the matter is that they are all losers and so bring nothing to the table. Besides, does Obama really need another person to deliver any state, come November?

The most sensible choice would be to pick a young person, between the age group of mid-forties to early fifties. Someone closer to his age, so that he really turns the page. Another ethnic or a female choice would be too much for the independent voter. A young white male away from the Washington crowd, some happy face, not threatening to his own persona, might be a good choice. Besides, a VP in Barack Obama administration would be like a potted plant in any case. Barack Obama and his ego can not accommodate another person to share the spot-light. He just needs to fulfill the constitutional requirement. This choice would show his character.

Once the general elections are over, the transition would be the most critical this time around. We have not seen such a fluid situation in a generation. When George Herbert Walker Bush took over from Ronald Reagan, he was the Vice President and did not need a transition. Bill Clinton took over from an angry George H W Bush and the transition was at best not ugly. The situation in January 1993 was placid except for the economy. International situation was not bad, except for Bosnia. Bill Clinton’s first term was a disaster in terms of foreign policy. The reason was simple, he and his administration had no reasonable transition and Bill Clinton packed his State Department with the left-overs of Jimmy Carter.

George W Bush took over from Bill Clinton in January 2001 with an open contempt for the previous administration. George W Bush was not only cocky, he brought the whole neo-con movement with him. Economy was good and the international situation appeared calm and under control. Bill Clinton and his State Department knew better. They warned the incoming administration of a very dangerous movement i.e. Al-Qaeda. No one was listening. Dick Cheney (Vice President) and Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense) were like the two old ‘Hooligans‘ who got excess to a candy store without supervision. Condoleezza Rice (National Security Advisor) was like the ‘Bimbo‘ who got her first date. She threw the file on ‘National Security’ in the bottom drawer. The result is in front of you. She never accepted the blame for it.

Today, the situation is far worse than 1981 when President Reagan took over from President Carter. Economy is in recession whether you admit it or not, inflation is leaping forward, energy crisis is looming large and America is at war on two fronts. The third war with Iran is being promoted by the neo-cons again. Our reputation around the world is in shambles. Who is the best person to help the new administration? The answer is the current President George W Bush. If Barack Obama is the next President Elect, he would need all the help he could get from the incumbent. There is no better consul that Obama could seek from than the man who created the situation in the first place. The next President of The United States would need the current President of The United States to facilitate the transition. A candidate that magnanimous should be our next President.

Charles Hagel is probably the best candidate to be the next Secretary of State. The senior United States Senator from Nebraska would be 62 years old in October this year. Hagel is not only a moderate Republican but I would call him an independent. His demeanor is better than Joe Biden’s and he is less mouthy, a definite qualification in the current situation. Besides, Chuck Hagel has the least amount of ego, an important attribute for Obama administration. Fareed Zakaria could be considered as a deputy to Hagel. Many have suggested that the Republican Senator from Nebraska could be a vice president pick. That is simply impractical because the Democratic Party would revolt. A complete over-haul of the State Department is long over-due. Barack Obama keeps talking about a need to change the mind-set in Washington. Nowhere is the need more acute than in the Department of State of the United States of America. Another important addition to the State Department should be an increase of Political Appointees at the rank of Deputy Secretaries of State rather than having just one. Career diplomats are too dangerous and often irresponsible. The world has changed and United States can not afford a low level engagement with countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran and Mexico.

The primary job of the President of The United States is the National Security, Foreign Affairs, Trade and then the Economy. Because of the domestic compulsions, the candidates talk about economy and jobs the most. They also keep talking about the Health Care, Education, Environment and Immigration. These are largely the responsibilities of the States and The Congress. Once the new President takes office, he gets over-whelmed by the world-events. The next President must be cognizant of this fact and use the small window available to him in the first few months of his first year in office. The time to discuss all this is, NOW.

Was The Bombay Plan ill conceived?

Probably! First of all, how many people in India are aware of ‘The Bombay Plan’? It was published in January 1944 and was the brain-child of JRD Tata (Jehangir Ratanji Dadabhoy Tata). The presumption was that the Indian economy could not grow without government intervention and regulation. The Bombay Plan had the underlying assumption that the fledgling Indian industries would not be able to compete in a free-market economy. Tata passionately believed that future Indian government must protect indigenous industries against any foreign competition.

In this endeavor, JRD Tata was able to enlist the support of GD Birla (Ghanshyam Das Birla), Lala Shri Ram of DCM (Delhi Cloth Mills), Kasturbhai Lalbhai (Lalbhai Group) and the likes of Ardeshir Dalal (of Tatas & Viceroy’s Council), Ardeshir Darabshaw Shroff (Tatas Financial Adviser) and John Mathai (India’s first Railway Minister). The Plan had the blessings of Viceroy Lord Wavell and therefore the British Government. The First Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru, did not officially accept the plan. The Bombay Plan had the Russian flavor.

Notwithstanding stout denials by the bureaucrats of that time, the Bombay Plan had a profound impact on India’s National Industrial Policy. Although not sounding socialist, the plan led to the first “Five Year Plan” in 1950. The principle flaw in the plan originated from the fact that the promoters were a small group of industrialists who not only had self-interest at the core, but had limited knowledge about the rest of India. During the first fifty years of the 20th century, India had upward of 100 major industrial houses, spread across the length and breadth of the country. No one was consulted by this group. The problem was not the fear of foreign competition, but the tendency to impose high-taxes on business. It was not just Nehru and his advisers, but the Tatas and the Birlas who stunted the growth of Indian industry.