The genesis of India-Pakistan divide!

Any discussion on India-Pakistan relations is largely emotional. Both sides talk out of anger and distrust. Third party analysis is also meaningless without proper context. I have not read any blogger on either side who has tried to research the genesis of the suspicion between the two communities. My personal inclination has been to go way back to 1757 and trace the developments on the subcontinent since then. The fact of the matter is that Muslims were ruling over the Indian subcontinent since 1192 AD after the defeat of Prithvi Raj Chauhan. When the British East India Company won the Battle of Plassey on June 23, 1757, the Muslims of India felt humiliated and insecure for the first time in nearly 565 years. Warren Hastings, Governor of Bengal, compounded this insecurity in 1772 by equating the then official Indian languages, Arabic and Persian with Hindi and Sanskrit. For a British Governor it was common sense since Hindus were 75% of the population. For Muslims this was the ultimate insult to be compared to ‘Kafirs’ in any shape or form. This was actually the beginning of the ultimate Hindu-Muslim divide that never got bridged.

It would be dishonest for any blogger or analyst to talk about this subject without due reference to the 190 years of British role in the Hindu-Muslim conflict that resulted into the partition of India. Once the partition actually took place it was almost impossible to contain the mutual dislike and hatred amongst the neighbors. The British reluctance and the American activism compounded the problem. President Harry Truman’s enthusiasm towards Pakistan and disappointment with Jawaharlal Nehru further exasperated the volatile situation. The bilateral relationship between India and Pakistan that needed mature diplomacy without any outside interference exploded with the Kashmir dispute in October 1947 and the subsequent referral to the United Nations. There has been a virtual stalemate since then. Every time there is a new initiative by India or Pakistan to resolve the dispute, it gets further complicated by adding a new dimension to an already complex situation. With India rising as an economic power, any parity with Pakistan is a distant illusion that many people refuse to accept. The rise of China further encourages this myth of parity!

Who should push the reset button?

American Exceptionalism has run its course over the last century. It is time to hit the ‘reset’ button! The world has changed during the last three decades. There are other cultures and civilizations that have emerged on the global stage. These emerging powers want a bigger role in reorganizing the world. This does not mean the diminution of the American power or prestige, it simply means that other countries expect similar reciprocation and respect from the United States of America.

Seventy years back another US President had to push the ‘reset’ button but those were different times and that was no ordinary President. We are talking about the legendary Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 32nd President of the United States. The situation is as dire as it was during the Great Depression, only the then impending World War II is now replaced by the ‘War on Terror’. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill knew how to win the World War II, Barack Obama and Gordon Brown have no clue how to win the ‘War on Terror’! Do we really need to wait for four long years?

What exactly is this ‘reset’ button? It means that the world has to go back to the default position and renegotiate its way into a new world order. Just like in 1945 the League of Nations had to be replaced by the United Nations, now the UN itself has to be replaced by something else. America and China would fight hard to retain the defunct United Nations Security Council. Sooner or later the US dollar has to be replaced as a reserve currency by something else. America would fight tooth and nail to resist that! The entire global financial infrastructure has to be replaced by another Bretton Woods type system. US would fight that too. Who will push the ‘reset’ button?

Hindu bigots are far more dangerous…

India has learnt how to live with the Muslim separatism, the Khalistani elements, Kashmiri secessionists and other varied insurgencies, but is very skeptical about dealing with the ever simmering Hindu bigotry. Since the formation of Akhil Bhartiya Hindu Mahasabha in 1915, the ‘Indian Political Leadership’ has been timid in dealing with this lethal poison in a traditionally secular Hindu society. Following Gandhi’s assassination on January 30, 1948, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) was banned on February 4, 1948. This decisive action by the government provided the space to the infant Indian Democracy to grow and mature. Can you imagine if this bold step was not taken? These spineless cowards were nowhere to be seen when the British ruled India. They do not represent us, and they know that. The so-called ‘Hindutva Brigade’ has never won even 10% support in any election since India’s independence and they claim to represent us? These criminals should be treated on par with Muslim Terrorists and Khalistani Secessionists. We do not need any of these extremists and must deal with them sternly and without mercy. They are all anti-nationals. How I wish Sardar Patel was alive to deal with these creeps!

Uniform Civil Code is absolutely essential for a secular democracy like India, at the same time full protection of life and property to the minorities must be guaranteed by the majority and the national government. Any form of discrimination or intimidation must be criminally prosecuted. Article 370 of the Constitution of India must be repealed by giving a notice to the United Nations at least a year in advance and then be prepared to deal with consequences with full force of the State of India. Article 370 is discriminatory and gives fodder to these phony Hindu chauvinists. The State of India must have the balls to deal with the principles of democracy and stop pandering to the minority vote banks. American Democracy is not perfect, but this country was willing to spend its blood and treasure to fight for its democratic principles and pay whatever price necessary. India needs to learn something from this country and establish a principled democracy. Peace must be achieved on principles. Are you listening, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan? Stop coddling terrorists! Rahul Gandhi must expose these politicians!

Russia is not a reliable defense supplier anymore

Rahul Bedi of Jane’s Defense Weekly makes an interesting observation in an article “Beware the American military embrace” in the September 19, 2008 issue of India Abroad. He further elaborates, ” It is anticipated that over the next four years, India’s outlay on defense procurements will be in excess of $30 billion, and further that this figure will climb to $80 billion by 2020. Americans are very keen to cash in on this market, which covers the whole range of equipment for India’s navy and air force.” We are all aware of the historical perspective on ‘Indo-Russian Security Relations’ but that was more than 50 years back. India is no more as vulnerable as it used to be viz-a-viz Kashmir at the United Nations. I am not suggesting for even a moment that we do not need a close relationship with Russia. What I am absolutely convinced about is that we need not be as suspicious of the United States as we have been for the past 61 years. The situation has changed since 1998. The US does not take India for granted any more. They still try to push us around but that is more out of habit than any reasonable conviction. Besides, there are 2.7 millions Indians living in the United States who are quite influential and resourceful. They are extremely patriotic when it comes to India’s national interests. On the flip side there are only 15,000 Indians living in the Russian Federation and with absolutely no leverage what so ever.

Indo-Russian bilateral relations have deteriorated since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia does not consider India as an ally anymore and frowns upon the growing Indo-US relationship. Russia has reneged on it’s contract to supply the Soviet aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov for $1.5 billion by 2010 and is now demanding $3.4 billion for the same package with the delivery in 2014. This is not an isolated case of breach in contract. Russian misbehavior can be seen across the board. Can you imagine this kind of reneging of a contract with an American company? The media would be all over the place and the supplier would pay a heavy public relations price in the international defense market. Unfortunately for India, its bureaucracy is littered with Soviet era apologists. There are enough Russian Agents in the ministry of defense in India, ready to steer any prospective defense contract towards their patron. It is time we give careful consideration to our national interests rather than pander to the Russian whims. Ofcourse, there is some down-side to dealing with American suppliers as well. They would only deal with countries that honor American laws and India does not necessarily conform to US laws. To overcome this hurdle, the US government has instituted a government to government initiative called “Foreign Military Sales” program. This FMS negociates the defense deals for India and other countries with the ‘Military Equipment Suppliers’ for a service charge of 1-2 percent of the total value of the deal. Every thing is above board and makes it so much easier and faster. India must stop being over suspicious and grow up.

Major conflict with China is inevitable.

China sincerely believes that it’s diplomacy is working. America and India both think otherwise. There are global imperatives that mature democracies understand. China is no democracy and therefore has a major disadvantage in terms of international feed-back. Chinese people are becoming very nationalistic and have stopped listening to what they don’t want to hear. It is a very bad development! China and the Chinese believe that one day, in not too distance a future, they would over-take the United States of America. What does it mean? It means that the ‘Chinese Economy’ might become bigger than US economy in terms of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by the middle of this century. So be it! Who cares? But the important thing is that the per capita GDP in China would remain a quarter of the per-capita income of America and the Americans. Only that criteria determines the living standards of it’s people and their quality of life. People develop a society and not the government.

The second global imperative is the ‘Chinese Military Muscle’. The United States of America will not allow China to develop a ‘Military Capability’ that would threaten it’s ‘Global National Interests’ in Asia and around the world. Chinese believe that they would continue to grow it’s offensive capabilities under the International radar. That is not going to happen. First, no country in the world could challenge America’s dominance in it’s R&D (Research & Development) and second, no country has such an advance indigenous capability. These advantages are not developed overnight. It has taken the US more than hundred and fifty years to create a vast ‘Military Industrial Complex’ as it exists today. Besides, it is becoming an inter-dependent world and no country benefits by trying to build a clandestine ‘Military Infrastructure’. It is insane the way China wants to control it’s national development.

America is not the only country that China needs to be concerned about. India, Japan and Russia are all very nervous with the rise of China. It is part of the ‘United Nations Panchyat’ and pretends to be in the family of ‘European Brahmins’. India and Japan sit outside the ‘Panch Pradhan’ (Five High-Priests) of UN (United Nations) and are often scolded now and then for something that the ‘Panchyat’ feels is unacceptable. China equipped with a veto power over India has enjoyed the ‘August Company’ for 68 years. India is like the ‘Untouchable’, itching to storm the club of ‘Permanent Five’ (Panch Pradhan) and occupy the high-seat of power and prestige. This may not be a big deal for some but for atleast one billion Indians this is the biggest insult. China knows that and most Chinese pretend that it is their right to boss over India.

China is not just the India’s neighbor, but is also a major rival for natural resources and an adversary in terms of our national security. The Government of India has to say nice things about it’s neighbor as this is called diplomacy. As far as the people of India are concerned, they have always been suspisious of China and it’s motives. Indians would continue to pretend that everything is honky-dory between China and India till we feel secured and strong enough to stand up to our ‘Northern Bully’. We, the Indians, also believe that we have better brains compared to Chinese but they work a little harder than us. China has five to one advantage over India in economy, military power and every other parameter. This is absolutely unacceptable to Indians and they make no bones about it. Our growth rate is not as bad. While China is growing at the rate of 12% a year, India might chug along at 8% or close. So how do we catch up?