2009 could be a year of correction!

Some people are convinced that in 2009 it has to get much worse before it gets better. I am personally not persuaded by that argument. 2008 was in the making since the middle of 2005, we just didn’t see it coming. What happened last year was beyond my comprehension and that is why we let it happen! We are all alert now, our governments are acting decisively and forcefully. This is totally unprecedented. There are structural problems in our economies but that would take a generation to correct.

Expectations from 2009: Views from outside the biz world was presented by NDTV just a short while back. What struck me was the optimism of the participants. Indian Stock Market has lost 55% of its value since January 22, 2008, GDP growth is likely to come down to 6.5 % from the high of 9% in 2007-08. People are loosing jobs, industrial production has dropped substantially and India was hit 6 times by the terrorists in 2008. Despite all the gloom and doom Indians sound excited!

Why don’t we see the same optimism here in America? Why are people so scared about loosing the jobs and benefits in this country? Barack Obama was elected as an agent of ‘hope and change’, with a spirit of ‘yes, we can’. What happened to all the excitement of the fall 2008? The US stock market is not in free-fall any more, unemployment is still in single digits and people still went out shopping for Christmas. I totally agree with the NDTV’s sentiment that 2009 could be a year of correction. This certainly does not feel like a depression to me!

Terrorism is likely to continue in 2009 but we would find ways to fight it better. We might loose some manufacturing jobs but then there might be different types of jobs available. Housing market could be sluggish in 2009 but that is not the end of the world. Living in an apartment is far better than hustling to keep the single family home in shape. It is better to rent an accommodation these days than own a liability. This way we would throw away the things that we do not need. We all would emerge from this down-turn much smarter and wiser! This correction was much needed.