When do we change the name of ‘Indian Ocean’?

Why did we have to change the name of the ‘Indian Subcontinent’ to ‘South Asia’? Then why should we not change the name of ‘Indian Ocean’ to say ‘South Asian Ocean? Better still, we could change it to ‘Chindian Ocean’ since China is going to rule the world in any case. But then what happens to the hurt feelings of America’s beloved Pakistan? If Barack Obama has his way, then we should name it ChinPak Ocean. This way the Obama administration can please both of its non-NATO allies. Have we not forgotten the omni-present Thackeray & Thackeray of Mumbai, the island nation of Marathi-manus? They (Bal & Raj) would rather have it named ‘Chatrapati Shivaji Maha Sagar’. Who amongst these contenders should prevail? If we do not agree to China’s claim, they might grab Arunachal Pradesh. If on the other hand Pakistan’s feelings are not taken into consideration, they may once again claim the whole of Jammu & Kashmir. Please do not forget, these days nothing moves without a nod from Barack Obama! But the name must change since the world does not like anything Indian, except its vast consumer market. Just THINK about it!

Barack Obama has decided to isolate India!

This is the first time in the history of the Indian subcontinent that the United States of America has invited a Communist China to participate in South Asia. The proposal is part of a broad US push to enlist key allies of Pakistan in an effort to stabilize the country, the Boston Globe reported. Even more shocking is a muted response from India. Can you imagine if India was invited by America to intervene in Taiwan or North Korea? China would have thrown such a fit as the world has not seen before. Barack Obama administration seems to be oblivious of India’s security concerns. China is to India what Soviet Union was to the United States. Indians are extremely distrustful of China and its relationship with Pakistan. China is hell bent on provoking India to take some decisive action in Arunachal Pradesh that would justify its expansionist agenda. India has been too restrained as far as China or Pakistan is concerned. One more incident like 26/11 and all hell might break loose! Just THINK about it!

President Obama’s foreign policy is anything “un-Bush” and that is the essence of the above initiative. When Saudi Arabia is involved in Pakistan related affairs, India understands the history behind such involvement. Getting China involved in counterinsurgency training and supplying military equipment to Pakistan is absolutely insane. This imprudent strategy could prove disastrous for the region. Remember the Carter-Reagan Doctrine of 1980s that was responsible for the birth of Taliban? This could be even worse as the Obama Doctrine might succeed in suppressing the Taliban insurgency but embolden the Pakistani military. A re-equipped Pakistani military-ISI alliance could be the next big threat to Pakistan itself. No serious expert or analyst actually considers Pakistan ever becoming a stable democracy. There was an interesting and honest article by Fouad Ajami in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, May 26, 2009 titled, “Pakistan’s Struggle for Modernity”, that explains the dilemma.

Barack Obama’s insensitivity towards India is so glaring and un-Bush that Indian Foreign Office would be hard put to explain the attitude to the Indian Parliament. A large section of Indian opinion makers including this blogger believes that Obama is peeved with Indians for supporting Hillary Clinton in the US primaries. His personal dislike could put India at odds with the United States in the years to come. Pakistan is not the only issue in Obama’s arsenal! It started with tempering of H1-B visa restrictions, and then came the infamous “Say no to Bangalore, yes to Buffalo” and now the obvious coddling of China and Pakistan. Mr Obama is not an idiot; he is just being a populist jerk in the mold of Jimmy Carter! Unfortunately he is not dealing with the India of 1970s; he has to deal with the largest English speaking middle-class in the world. This English-speaking middle-class of India would be 300 million strong with a purchasing power greater than any other block in the whole wide world.

Team-Obama seems to have an ‘Intellectual Blind-Spot’

President-elect Barack Obama has assembled an impressive cabinet for his incoming administration. Few would disagree with that. I would personally hold my judgment for the next 6 months. During the past 12 months, Obama preached a few creative ideas with regards to his foreign policy. His willingness to normalize relations with Cuba, direct and unconditional talks with Iran and striking targets inside terror-infested Pakistan. Since his election as the 44th President of the United States, he has designated Hillary Clinton to be the next United States Secretary of State and Susan Rice as the next US ambassador to the United Nations. Both are unlikely to actively promote Obama’s limited foreign policy vision!

Foreign policy is not a major issue when it comes to Presidential-election in the United States. Every candidate has a vision for America without any international dimension. This time around, domestic economy has consumed every politician in Washington. Outgoing President George W Bush appears to be fighting a rear guard battle. There is a potential vacuum developing in the world and Team-Obama is sending very timid signals to the international community. Pakistan recognized this opportunity and mounted a commando raid on Bombay to test the waters and was delighted to find a complete failure in India as well as around the world. This is not India’s problem by any stretch of imagination. Wait till American interests are hit once again. Team-Obama seems to have learnt very little from Bill Clinton.

When it comes to South Asia, there seems to be an intellectual blind-spot in America’s State Department. Barack Obama is not going to be pro-active when it comes to that part of the world. Pakistan is developing into the next Afghanistan with 60 nuclear war-heads and 6 times the population of their Western neighbour. The combination of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa and the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) is far more lethal compared to Taliban -al-Qaeda nexus. If only India or Bombay was the target of this commando-style raid by the above combination, they would not have targeted the American and British nationals, leave aside the Jews and their Nariman House. My hunch is that Pakistan is in desperate need of money and Obama administration was likely to be far more stringent then their predecessor. The only way to get large tranche of foreign aid was to do something dramatic and attract world attention. Did they succeed in doing that? Just THINK about it!

India must increase its Defense Budget to $60 billion…

India is a very large democracy surrounded by huge poverty all around. The Indian sub-continent has been unstable since it’s independence from the British in 1947. Pandit Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India mis-read the situation in the neighborhood and paid a heavy price in 1948. Jawaharlal Nehru had a different vision for India, some good some bad. Now India must follow the ‘Vision 2020’ articulated by former President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam (the 11th President of India). He envisions India to emerge as a fully developed economy by the year 2020, ready to lead the world with other countries like the United States, China and Russia. It is time India starts taking its responsibilities seriously and act accordingly. If it does not, it would undermine its own security in the long run. There is a power vacuum in South Asia and beyond, since the fall of Soviet Union. If this space is not occupied by a rising power like India, China is bound to spread its influence beyond acceptable limits.

Currently, India’s defense budget is estimated between $26 billion and $34 billion, depending upon what is included and what is not. Either way, it is way too small to reasonably fund its security and humanitarian commitments. At this stage you can not calculate the defense allocation as percentage of GDP. The total footprint is too small and the basic defense infrastructure is virtually non-existent. India must also stop worrying about China’s defense budget. We have very different problems and very different commitments. The next question is, how do you fund such massive increase in the defense outlays? Government of India, for some strange reason, has continued to depend on ‘Public Sector Undertakings’ for major defense procurements, including capital equipment. Besides, all major weapon systems are either imported or locally assembled at the ‘State Owned Enterprises’. This is a major reason why our defense requirements are not being fully funded.

This bureaucratic mind-set must change. India is no more a command and control economy. We have a large and responsible ‘Private Sector’. There are more than 50 billionaires in India, spread across all 35 States and Union Territories. They have the technologies and the infrastructure to start contributing in developing India’s Military-Industrial Complex. Our private companies are large and resourceful enough to form collaborations all over the world and develop the most complicated weapon systems around. But, India needs far more than weapons alone. We do not have any significant lift capabilities by land, sea or air. Earlier this year, India placed an order for 6 Hercules C-130 J military transport planes from Lockheed Martin of USA. The deal is worth around $1 billion and the expected delivery date is 2011 at the earliest. The fact of the matter is that we are immediately short of 20 such transport planes but cannot commit any funds because of budgetary constraints.

India needs a long-term and a medium-term defense procurement policy. Let us say, our medium term defense budget is $60 billion starting April 1, 2010 and increases to $120 billion by March 31, 2020. This budget must be equally distributed amongst all three services. Indian Navy must get atleast 30 percent of the budget, Indian Air Force and Indian Army too should get 30 percent each. The remaining 10 percent must be allotted to a new ‘National Guard’, like the one in United States. But the most important component of this plan is the participation of the Indian Private Sector. To begin with, atleast 30 percent of the budget should be allocated to the private sector and by 2020, increase to 70 percent of all procurement. For example, let us take the case of Super Hercules C-130 transport aircraft. If we need additional 120 Hercules, we would rather assemble them in India than depend entirely on Lockheed Martin, and by implication, the whims of the US Congress. In that case, the order would increase from current $1 billion to $20 billion. Indian companies, like Tata or Ambanis or even Larsen & Toubro, could form a joint venture with Lockheed Martin to produce the required number of transport aircrafts for Indian Air Force, Indian Army and even Indian Navy. This plan would also spur the growth rate of the Indian economy.