China poses a significant threat to India!

China wants India to block Dalai Lama’s Dharamsala meet. This was not a request but a demand. Can you imagine India making a similar demand on China? The two Asian giants have had a rocky relationship since the 1962 Indo-China war. Despite of the ‘Henderson Brooks Report’, India has lost major territories since 1857. China on the other hand has expanded substantially in the past hundred and fifty years, including Tibet. If someone tells me that China is a peaceful country and has no plans to acquire additional land, they are smoking something! Peaceful neighbors do not try to scuttle other countries’ international agreements (Indo-US nuclear deal).

China understands only one language, economic power and a military muscle. Why do you think it has not tried to grab some islands from Japan? China also recognizes that India has a week-kneed government. If it demands the deportation of Dalai Lama to China in return for Arunachal Pradesh, Congress government would have no problem throwing Dalai Lama under the bus. Had it not been for Atal Bihari Vajpayee government exploding the nuclear device in 1998, China would have grabbed some portion of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh by now. Whom are we kidding? All these academics talking about Nehru provoking the 1962 war is poppy-cock.

India needs to grow-up and behave like a regional power. China will just have to accept the fact that India has its own national interests and would guard them with all its might. Our bureaucracy and the academia must get rid of this China-complex. President George W Bush understands China’s threat to the fledgling democracies in Asia and offered India a security alliance. India behaves like a virgin scared of the first kiss! Thank God the new generations of Indians are not pansies like the rest of us and would therefore give China a kick for a kick. Destiny beckons us; we are the future of the world. Indians have far better brains than their Chinese counterparts. India would definitely over-take China by 2047 in all respects!

Obama could squander strategic gains!

President-elect Barack Obama has focused primarily on the domestic issues since he entered the Presidential race in 2007. He made ‘War in Iraq’ as his major foreign policy platform and trashed the Bush administration for getting involved without any national interest at stake! Majority of Americans agree with him on that position. He has also proposed a much more robust engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan. People by and large do not dispute his analysis. His position on Iran is far more reconciliatory than most of his colleagues. Obama is very much in tune with the rest on Israel-Palestine conflict. These issues are least of America’s problems. The United States has been facing a growing challenge from China and Russia for the past decade or more. President Bush has managed China rather well but not the Russian threat. Barack Obama appears oblivious of the growing dilemma of dealing with Russia, China and India. He did not find the time to call either of the big-three in the first one week! Instead, he did not waste a day in calling the 9 Western Allies.

Where is the change? All his predecessors for the past 100 years have done the same thing! The world has changed since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The traditional ‘Trans-Atlantic Alliance’ does not have the same value as it did even 10 years back. The growing influence of China is making India and the rest of Asia nervous. Russia is likely to join China in forming an anti-American alliance. India could feel insecure and make unwise commitments in the region. America needs to provide an immediate leadership in South Asia and the Far-East. Barack Obama does not have the luxury of screwing up like Bill Clinton or George W Bush in their first year. What is alarming is the choice of Obama’s advisers on foreign affairs. He appears to have summoned the counsels of Warren Christopher, Sam Nunn, Madeleine Albright and Richard Holbrooke to advise him on his State Department appointments. Add to these luminaries, you have the likes of Senator John Kerry, Tom Daschle and the dim-witted Bill Richardson. What more can you ask for?

Richard Holbrooke – Leslie Gelb-FOREIGN POLICY AFTER 9/11

Richard Holbrooke, Vice Chairman, Perseus / Former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. (GUEST HOST); Leslie Gelb, President, Council on Foreign Relations; Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning, State …

Bharat Ratna for President George W Bush?

Throughout our history, few foreign leaders have cared for India as much as President George W Bush! I am not just talking about the much hyped Indo-US nuclear deal, but the over-all bilateral environment. Some people call this a special chemistry between the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President George W Bush. Others know better! George Bush came into the office with a strong predisposition towards India. He found an ally in Condoleezza Rice, who for her own reasons saw Indo-US relations as a strategic imperative for the United States. Both were extremely deferential to then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his special envoy, Brajesh Mishra. Needless to add that Bush and Rice were deeply influenced by the former US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, a late India admirer.

British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and US President Franklin Roosevelt (FDR) often clashed over India. Few would care to research the intensity of Roosevelt’s concern for India and it’s independence from the British. Had FDR survived, India would have been free in 1945 or 1946 at the latest. Roosevelt would not have allowed the partition either. FDR was also intimately aware of the British policy of divide and rule. President Roosevelt would not have presided over the United Nations without India on the Security Council! There were significant numbers of high-level diplomats in US State Department during FDR’s administration that was opposed to close Indo-US relations. Roosevelt was aware of this group and kept them away from any dialogue concerning India. Unfortunately for India, this group came to dominate during Truman’s administration. Colin Powell aligned with this group!

Much to the credit of George Bush, he refused the counsel from Anthony Zinni and Colin Powell when it came to developing relations with India. They both are staunch Pakistan supporters and the traditional cold-war practitioners. Bush not only stayed the course but spent a lot of political capital when it came to the strategic relations with India. History would credit him with great vision when the great power relationships would unfold in the 21st century. Even a great diplomat like Henry Kissinger has a limited vision when it comes to India. Kissinger views India through the prism of Islamic threat. Kissinger says the rise of India and China is an immensely significant event. He describes these nations as “conglomerates of cultures” that are much larger and potentially more powerful than European nation states ever will be. Looking to each, Kissinger says it is sensible to think of India as a de facto ally, while China and the U.S. have the chance to form a lasting relationship to the benefit of the world. President Bush has a far more comprehensive view of India! He clearly considers India as friend and China as a necessary rival.

CNN-IBN Devil’s Advocate- Henry Kissinger 1 of 3

CNN-IBN Devil’s Advocate- Henry Kissinger 2 of 3

CNN-IBN Devil’s Advocate- Henry Kissinger 3 of 3

A decent man is going down the drain…

Senator John McCain of Arizona is a decent man, at least compared to some of his Republican colleagues. He should have been the President of the United States of America at some point. Unfortunately, he is too late to be one this time around. The political deck is stacked-up against the incumbent party and it would have been a miracle to have beaten a Democrat in current circumstances. Providence intervened and the most favored Democrat, Hillary Clinton, was pre-empted by a young unknown black-man from Chicago. This was a golden opportunity presented to a moderate Republican who couldn’t be tied to the unpopular incumbent, President George W Bush. McCain was cruising along within striking distance when he suddenly decided to pick a young un-experienced Governor from Alaska, Sarah Palin, as a running mate. I knew then that he has screwed-up and wrote about it in my blog. He did get a boost in the polls after the Republican Convention but lost the argument on experience!

The nomination of Senator Barack Obama as the nominee of the Democratic Party split the party in half. It was not just the media that circumvented the process, but whole-sale desertion of the Clintons by the blacks created an unpleasant situation. Campaign Obama used his race effectively to black-mail the Clinton supporters and pushed the ‘Super Delegates’ to support their candidate. A substantial percentage of Democrats felt cheated and presented an opportunity to an acceptable Republican candidate. All that John McCain had to do was to behave rationally and he would have been leading by a decent margin by this time of the year. The Hillary Clinton supporters and a vast majority of independents expected him to pick former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, to be his running mate. This would have strengthened his economic credentials besides his own foreign policy and national security advantage. He also needed Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, and Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City, to be an integral part of his presumptive administration. Instead, he did exactly the opposite. He took a totally irrational decision and went for a highly political and a short-term candidate. He managed to fire his base but lost the independents that were crucial for this election.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin comes across as a very bright individual but has been given a raw deal. She is expected to out-perform Barack Obama in 6 to 8 weeks. If she had gone through the rough and tumble of 18 month long primary season, she would be as ready as anybody. Add to that the open hostility of the conventional media towards her. The CNBC, CNN and others like them can barely hide their contempt for the new intruder on their favorite Barack’s territory. Hillary Clinton built Barack Obama as a potential candidate all through the spring and early summer. He had very little going for him except his race and the adoring media. Hillary really whipped his ass and prepared him for the national debates by exposing him to the real issues. Sarah Palin has received no such training or the challenges that a viable candidate must face. In the early stages Obama used to look at Hillary’s face for any complicated question. She was too willing to answer for him and get the applause. He would then turn around and make that his answer. The moderators and commentators were either too dumb or were willing to ignore the obvious and accept Barack’s excuses. The whole process was at best, distastefull.

McCain-Palin in Republican gutter?

Democracy means we agree to disagree. It certainly does not mean that if you disagree with me, I would destroy your reputation and your character. Unfortunately, that is what McCain-Palin have decided to do. Instead of making their case to the voters, they have decided to stop at nothing and try to destroy their opponent. It does Senator McCain no good what so ever. He failed to persuade the American people that he would make a better President. It does not mean that people are happy to vote for Senator Barack Obama. What it means is that voters are willing to take a chance with a Democrat this time. This has a lot to do with the state of the US economy and the current President’s unpopularity. This is not a McCain year!

Senator Barack Obama is certainly not the best candidate that America could offer but he is the Democratic nominee and this time a Democrat is going to win the White House. It is not just the crisis on the Wall Street that favours a Democrat; it is also the incumbency fatigue that has destroyed the chances of Senator John McCain. For some strange reason McCain supported President George W Bush on everything from an unpopular war to very unpopular tax cuts. The last straw came with his support of the bail-out package. Let us face it, Senator McCain blew it! His choice of Governor Sarah Palin as a vice presidential candidate pleased his conservative base but disappointed the independents. She would have been a fine candidate if she has gone through an eighteen month primary race. Sarah Palin is bright and attractive but totally unprepared. Her political future is ahead of her.