The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part XI

The Strobe Talbott – Jaswant Singh dialogue (June 1998-September 2000) laid the ground for Bill Clinton’s transformational visit to India in March 2000. That presidential visit opened a new chapter in relations between the United States and India. The bilateral dialogue grappled not only with the urgent issues of arms control and nuclear nonproliferation but also their visions for Indo-US relationship and the potential for economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries. My personal reading is that the developed world understands only one language and that is economic and military strength of its rival. The case in point is China. Russia is being pushed around these days because it does not have the economic muscle and Japan has never been taken seriously because it lacks the military muscle. China has a little bit of both and that is why it is being coddled by the entire world these days. India needs to not only enlarge its economic clout but also develop a credible military capability; only then the world would pay any attention to it. Having said that, there is a visible evolution in India’s stature in the world since May 1998. Just THINK about this!

Coming back to the Indian subcontinent, the Vajpayee administration began a push for a full-scale diplomatic peace process with Pakistan. With the historic inauguration of the Delhi-Lahore bus service in February 1999, Vajpayee initiated a new peace process aimed towards permanently resolving the Kashmir dispute and other territorial/nuclear/strategic conflicts with Pakistan. The resultant Lahore Declaration espoused a commitment to dialogue, expanded trade relations and the goal of denuclearized South Asia and mutual friendship. This eased the tension created by the 1998 nuclear tests, not only within the two nations, but also in South Asia and the rest of the world. While the Vajpayee government was in full throttle mode in terms of its foreign policy initiatives, domestically it was being undermined by a destructive regional satrap, the AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha. Finally, in May 1999, the AIADMK did pull the plug on the NDA, and the Vajpayee administration was reduced to a caretaker status pending fresh elections scheduled for October 1999. If you have friends like these, who needs an enemy? She is not the only crook, the other guy with dark glasses (DMK chief K Karunanidhi) is even worst. He openly supports the terrorists and he is a chief minister these days. Then there is Mamata Banerjee and Prakash Karat in West Bengal, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and my favorite, Thackerays in Maharashtra! With these guys floating around, who can focus on a stable foreign policy? Vajpayee was now just a caretaker Prime Minister.

While Prime Minister Vajpayee was busy making peace with Pakistan in February 1999, Pakistani Army was busy planning an attack and occupation of Kargil in the state of Jammu & Kashmir. Indian army units were rushed into Kashmir in response. Operation Vijay was launched by the Indian Army in June 1999. Over 500 Indian soldiers died in the three-month long Kargil War, and it is estimated around 600-4000 Pakistani militants and soldiers died as well. India pushed back the Pakistani militants and Northern Light Infantry soldiers. Almost 70% of the territory was vacated by Pakistan. With news of Pakistan planning to launch a nuclear attack or a nuclear threat in the face of a lost war with India, Nawaz Sharif was summoned to the US by Bill Clinton. After heavy losses and a recalcitrant general in Musharraf, and with both the United States and China refusing to condone the incursion or threaten India to stop its military operations, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif asked the remaining militants to stop and withdraw to Pakistan-administrated Kashmir. The militants, driven by Islamic zeal, were not willing to accept orders from Nawaz Sharif while the NLI soldiers withdrew. The militants were killed by the army or forced to withdraw in skirmishes which went beyond the announcement of withdrawal by Pakistan. This naked aggression by Pakistan convinced President Bill Clinton to stand with India and develop a stable relationship with a tested democracy. President George W Bush continued and enlarged the Indo-US relationship. Now President Barack Obama wants to go back and start the sordid drama all over again!

“Thanks, but no thanks”

India told Pakistan, “thanks, but no thanks” for the joint investigation of the terror suspects now hiding in their country. The initial reaction of President Asif Ali Zardari was genuine and people in India knew this, but within a few hours he reversed his statement of sending the chief of ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), Lieutenant-General Ahmad Shuja Pasha to Delhi. The top-brass of the Pakistani Army leaned on Zardari to backtrack his earlier statement offering full co-operation to India. This instinctive slip of diplomacy destroyed whatever little trust the world had in the new President of Pakistan. India and the rest of the world knew immediately that the ISI was in some ways involved in the Bombay terror attacks and that Pakistani Army was aware of the fact. This would eventually prove to be the most expensive blunder Pakistan has made since the break-up of Bangladesh in 1971. Just THINK about it!

During the last few years, relations between India and Pakistan were improving. Slowly but deliberately, Indians were beginning to give the benefit of doubt to Pakistani people. Artists, performers and cricketers were getting jobs and assignments in India. When Pakistan got into serious financial trouble just a few months back, Indians were contemplating a rescue package for their neighbors. It took 60 plus years to bring some thaw to the largely frozen bilateral relationship. Then came the Kabul bombing of the Indian Embassy and a possible complicity of the much despised ISI of Pakistan. Indians were not ready to blame Pakistanis immediately and were trying to isolate ISI as a rogue organization. Meanwhile President Asif Ali Zardari was making friendly gestures towards India and Indians were eager to find some excuse to embrace the much isolated Pakistan. 26/11 destroyed everything!

What destroyed the trust was not that the Bombay terrorists came from Pakistan or that ISI and Pakistani Military was covertly involved in the operation. Indians were speechless when President Zardari reversed his commitments and appeared on ‘Larry King’ at CNN to defend his position. The world saw an impotent civilian leadership in Pakistan and another possible Military coupe in offing. The worst moment was when ordinary Pakistanis and their media turned nationalistic and tried to justify their government. My personal feeling is every Indian feels stabbed in the back by a neighbor whom he or she was trying to include in the mainstream of a large and generous Indian family. It is highly unlikely that India would try a military strike against Pakistan as that would achieve nothing. What India can do and will do is to choke Pakistan diplomatically and economically. India would use its growing financial muscle! America will stand with India, China and Saudi Arabia would abstain!