John Bolton and the familiar American fantasy!

Yesterday, John R Bolton the former US Ambassador to the United Nations wrote a piece in The Wall Street Journal, “The Taliban’s Atomic Threat”. This guy is so off the wall that there seems to be no hope for Pakistan and its neighbors. The only question is who is worst, Democrats or the Republicans? A total lack of understanding about the “idea of Pakistan” is simply frightening! During the past 62 years since Pakistan was created, the Republicans were in power for 36 years in America and the Democrats for the remaining 26. Both sides invested billions and billions of dollars in the hope of developing Pakistan into a moderate Islamic country, friendly to the United States of America. What happens to Afghanistan, India or Iran in the bargain was of no concern to the expanding ‘Superpower’. Liberals and conservatives, progressives and neocons, both sides had enough time and money to experiment everything in their arsenal to achieve their objectives. Did they succeed in any sense of the world? The answer lies in the rise of Taliban and the failing state of Pakistan! Happy?

Today, May 3, 2009, Fareed Zakaria had an hour long interview with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at the Pentagon on his weekly show ‘Fareed Zakaria GPS’ on CNN. Gates echoed the policies of Obama administration. These policies are no different than the ones pursued by the George W Bush administration or for that matter the last 11 presidents. These policies are, invent a democracy in a fundamentally Islamic state, and train Pakistan military officers in the US, just in case the first policy fails. Keep supplying sophisticated weapons aid to the loyal ally against a democratic invader like India etc etc. Put what ever spin you want but the basic thrust has been the same and would remain unchanged. Do you know why? Americans never understood the “idea of Pakistan”. The glue that binds Pakistan is “hate India”. The dictators of Pakistan have always known that if their country develops like China or India, the logic for a separate country disappears. General Pervez Musharraf saw the results of building good and durable relations with India! The Pakistani establishment went after his blood. The Islamists mounted a relentless campaign against him and finally America had to mid-wife a transfer of power.

Here is the bummer! For the first time in Pakistan’s history, radical Islam has found a home in the so called “AfPak” region. Pakistan is not a moderate ‘Muslim State’. This is only an American fantasy. More than 70% of Pakistani population has been radicalized during the past 30 years. The fundamentalists have tasted power, first in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan. They are not going to give up political power for any monetary inducement what so ever. The earlier the Americans understand this the better off they would be in the long run. A huge majority of AfPak population hates America and Americans just like they hate India and Hindus or Israel and Israelis. The Pakistani establishment would never allow the AfPak region to develop and prosper. If we all do not learn our lessons from the past 62 years, we would never ever learn to deal with this explosive situation. Fortunately for Afghanistan, India and Iran, this time the American ass is on line. The jihadis have tasted blood on September 11, 2001. They would follow the Americans whenever US decides to leave the region.

The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part XII

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was perceived by Indian voters as a strong and decisive leader in 1998-99. His 13 month long second term plus 6 months as ‘care-taker prime minister’ convinced the people that the country would be safer in his hands. General Elections were held in India from September 5 to October 3, 1999, a few months after the ‘Kargil War’. The BJP-led NDA had won 303 seats in the 543 seat Lok Sabha, thereby securing a comfortable, stable majority. The coalition government that was formed lasted its full term of 5 years – the only non-Congress government to do so. On October 13, 1999, Atal Bihari Vajpayee took oath as Prime Minister of India for the third time. Just a day earlier, General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of Pakistan Army and the main architect of the ‘Kargil War’, seized power in Pakistan in a bloodless coup from a democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. He probably found public support because of the ‘Kargil’ humiliation. This was bad news for India! On December 24, 1999, an Indian Airlines flight IC-814 was hijacked from Nepal by 5 Pakistani terrorists. The hijackers held 189 hostages and demanded the release of 3 dreaded, including Maulana Masood Azhar (founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed), Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh (the killer of The Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl) from the Indian prison. Once a hostage was stabbed to death, Government of India capitulated under public pressure and released the terrorists in exchange for the hostages. India and the world is still paying the price for that error of judgment! The crisis ended on December 31, 1999.

President Bill Clinton visited India from March 19 – 24, 2000. His was the first state visit to India by a US President in 22 years. He became the first President of the United States to visit Bangladesh on March 20, 2000. Clinton also visited Pakistan for a few hours on his way back home. Obviously he had very little interest in Pakistan sponsored terrorism and the spread of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Instead of chasing around the Islamic terrorists in a distant Indian subcontinent, he decided to chase ‘white-bimbos’ right at home in Washington DC. America and the world had to pay a staggering price in blood and treasure just 18 months later on September 11, 2001. Now in 20-20 hindsight, it appears that Vajpayee Administration, Clinton Administration as well as the Bush Administration, all of them failed to see the looming catastrophe in Af-Pak. Aside from terrorism, Clinton-Vajpayee dialogue proved to be a watershed in Indo-US relations. India did not look back till 2008 US elections!

President George W Bush took office on January 20, 2001. He came to power with a soft-corner for India! We thought it was because of Condi Rice, that eventually proved to be a myth. George Bush considered China to be a rival and not a partner. He believed that an alliance with Australia, India, Japan and Singapore would be in the best interest of US national security. He was in the process of developing a consensus for this alliance within his administration when suddenly 9/11 happened. The world changed that day and with that India’s foreign policy became hostage to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. President had little time for any other issue. He became a war-time president. India had no choice but to adjust to the realities on the ground. Vajpayee was the first head of the state to call President Bush and offer assistance. Bush appreciates that gesture till date! As if this was not bad enough, a group of masked terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament on December 31, 2001. The terrorists managed to kill several security guards, but the building was sealed off swiftly and security forces cornered and killed the men, who were later proven to be Pakistan nationals. Although the Government of Pakistan officially condemned the attack, Indian intelligence reports pointed the finger at a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee ordered a mobilization of India’s military forces, and as many as 500,000 servicemen amassed along the international border. Pakistan responded in kind. The Indian subcontinent was heading towards a nuclear exchange!

Pakistan fell off the civilized train…

General Pervez Musharraf, the former President of Pakistan, might some day be considered as a moderate Islamic leader by the historians. The current gang in Pakistan is not only dim-witted they are flexing their muscles as if they are sitting on top of the world’s biggest oil and gas reserves. Last November the Zardari government asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to bail them out with a whopping $7.5 billion bail-out. Six weeks later they were ready to buy India’s share in a multi-billion dollar Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline! Did they win a jack-pot or something? Is this the way to manage an economy? Something is very strange about these people of Pakistan! What exactly are they looking for?

President Asif Ali Zardari said, “there’s a ‘little bit of India in every Pakistani and a little bit of Pakistan’ in every Indian” on November 24, 2008. Exactly a month later President Zardari said “India shouldn’t underestimate Pakistan”. What happened in these 30 days is a 180 degrees turn-around in ‘Pakistan’s Foreign Policy’. Instead of seizing the opportunity to eliminate the perpetrators of 26/11 attack on Bombay and thereby getting their own house in order, Pakistani Military made a political come back and forced the civilian government to talk tough to India. This would be fine if somebody in Pakistan was in charge of the militants. Unfortunately that is not the case. Pakistan has created a much bigger problem for itself!

Are you happy Mr Jinnah?

Muhammad Ali Jinnah, leader of the ‘All India Muslim League’, wanted a separate country for the Muslims of the ‘Indian Sub-continent’. Instead of getting a country, he got 3 countries having significant Muslim populations. Before the ‘Partition of India’, the population of the sub-continent was probably 450 million people. One third, or 150 million people, of the population of ‘Undivided India’ was Muslim. After the partition, West Pakistan had a population of roughly 60 million, East Pakistan about 40 million, and they left behind 50 million poorer Muslims in India. Today the Muslim population of the sub-continent is: 165 million people in Pakistan, 150 million people in India and approximately 135 million people in Bangladesh. A total of 450 million Muslims (one and a half times the total population of America) live on the Indian sub-continent. In other words, in a ‘United India’, their population would be about one third with very significant political voice. Instead, what you have is a divided and diminished ‘Muslim Voice’! Is this what you wanted Mr Muhammad Ali Jinnah?

If you are happy, I am happy for you. But I do not get this impression. Last week, August 1, 2008, Husain Haqqani (Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US), appeared on the ‘Charlie Rose’ show with his wife, Farahnaz Ispahani and throughout the interview they were defending their country and their government without much success. Charlie was literally scolding them both and I kind of felt bad and decided to write this piece. President Bush, met with the Pakistani Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, on Monday, July 28, 2008 at the White House in Washington. He is believed to have leaned heavily on Gilani to clean up the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) of Pakistan or face ‘serious action’ by the United States. This is quite humiliating for a visiting head of state. Besides, what can Gilani do? He is only filling in for the Bhutto family and does not have his own political base. Even if Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister at this time, she wouldn’t have been able to control the ISI either. To the best of my knowledge, ISI in Pakistan is the third leg of the political power, the second being the all powerful military. Pakistan needs to do some very heavy lifting.

Today Pakistan stands at the cross-roads as never before in their 60 years of brief history. President Bush has become very distrustful of Pakistan’s intent and would continue to force it to make unpleasant choices till he leaves the office. Once he leaves the office, the next President of the United States would be much more impatient with Pakistan compared to George Bush. If John McCain becomes the President, he would be forced by a ‘Democratic Congress’ to take quick action. On the other hand, if Obama is the next President, he has already stated that he would take unilateral action against the ‘Tribal Areas’ of Pakistan. General Pervez Musharraf faced similar choices after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. He was shrewd enough to play both sides, the Talibans and the Americans. Now there are no such choices available. The only saving grace for Pakistan is China that has some leverage. The question is, would China spend enough political capital with United States to find some breathing room for their long-term ally? Very difficult to count on!

Charlie Rose in conversation with Pakistan’s Ambassador Husain Haqqani & his wife Farahnaz Ispahani

General Musharraf, are you completely insane?

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf is hell-bent on undermining the civilian government. Since he lost the political power in Pakistan, Musharraf appears to be manipulating the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) or the military, or both. The civilian government of Pakistan is not in a position to confirm or deny any allegations of it’s involvement in Afghanistan or anywhere else. It was sad to see the Prime Minister of Pakistan being humiliated in the United States of America during his recent visit to this country. Kim Ghattas of BBC News said, “Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani came to Washington hoping to get President Bush to see in him a reliable and durable alternative to Pervez Musharraf”. That did not happen. America and the rest of the world believes that there are three power centers in Pakistan today. One is of course the all powerful military, the second is the intelligence agency, ISI and now the third power center is the Parliament of Pakistan.