The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part XII

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was perceived by Indian voters as a strong and decisive leader in 1998-99. His 13 month long second term plus 6 months as ‘care-taker prime minister’ convinced the people that the country would be safer in his hands. General Elections were held in India from September 5 to October 3, 1999, a few months after the ‘Kargil War’. The BJP-led NDA had won 303 seats in the 543 seat Lok Sabha, thereby securing a comfortable, stable majority. The coalition government that was formed lasted its full term of 5 years – the only non-Congress government to do so. On October 13, 1999, Atal Bihari Vajpayee took oath as Prime Minister of India for the third time. Just a day earlier, General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of Pakistan Army and the main architect of the ‘Kargil War’, seized power in Pakistan in a bloodless coup from a democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. He probably found public support because of the ‘Kargil’ humiliation. This was bad news for India! On December 24, 1999, an Indian Airlines flight IC-814 was hijacked from Nepal by 5 Pakistani terrorists. The hijackers held 189 hostages and demanded the release of 3 dreaded, including Maulana Masood Azhar (founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed), Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh (the killer of The Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl) from the Indian prison. Once a hostage was stabbed to death, Government of India capitulated under public pressure and released the terrorists in exchange for the hostages. India and the world is still paying the price for that error of judgment! The crisis ended on December 31, 1999.

President Bill Clinton visited India from March 19 – 24, 2000. His was the first state visit to India by a US President in 22 years. He became the first President of the United States to visit Bangladesh on March 20, 2000. Clinton also visited Pakistan for a few hours on his way back home. Obviously he had very little interest in Pakistan sponsored terrorism and the spread of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Instead of chasing around the Islamic terrorists in a distant Indian subcontinent, he decided to chase ‘white-bimbos’ right at home in Washington DC. America and the world had to pay a staggering price in blood and treasure just 18 months later on September 11, 2001. Now in 20-20 hindsight, it appears that Vajpayee Administration, Clinton Administration as well as the Bush Administration, all of them failed to see the looming catastrophe in Af-Pak. Aside from terrorism, Clinton-Vajpayee dialogue proved to be a watershed in Indo-US relations. India did not look back till 2008 US elections!

President George W Bush took office on January 20, 2001. He came to power with a soft-corner for India! We thought it was because of Condi Rice, that eventually proved to be a myth. George Bush considered China to be a rival and not a partner. He believed that an alliance with Australia, India, Japan and Singapore would be in the best interest of US national security. He was in the process of developing a consensus for this alliance within his administration when suddenly 9/11 happened. The world changed that day and with that India’s foreign policy became hostage to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. President had little time for any other issue. He became a war-time president. India had no choice but to adjust to the realities on the ground. Vajpayee was the first head of the state to call President Bush and offer assistance. Bush appreciates that gesture till date! As if this was not bad enough, a group of masked terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament on December 31, 2001. The terrorists managed to kill several security guards, but the building was sealed off swiftly and security forces cornered and killed the men, who were later proven to be Pakistan nationals. Although the Government of Pakistan officially condemned the attack, Indian intelligence reports pointed the finger at a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee ordered a mobilization of India’s military forces, and as many as 500,000 servicemen amassed along the international border. Pakistan responded in kind. The Indian subcontinent was heading towards a nuclear exchange!

The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part IX

The short lived H. D. Deve Gowda administration was not oblivious to the virtues and pitfalls of India’s foreign policy compulsions. Prime Minister Deve Gowda appointed Inder Kumar Gujral as the Minister of External Affairs during his 10 month tenure. Gujral had been the Minister of External Affairs in V P Singh’s cabinet. He propounded his ‘Gujral Doctrine’, which called for better relations with India’s neighbors. Gujral was a proactive foreign minister and was an experienced diplomat. He had also served as the Ambassador of India to the Soviet Union during the prime ministership of Indira Gandhi. Gujral tried very hard to improve relations with the United States of America, the only remaining super power. There were no ideological barriers left post disintegration of the Soviet Union and yet national security imperatives prevented India from constructive engagement with the United States. One of the main obstacles was a Democratic Administration of President Bill Clinton. Democrats have always been more stringent about Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). India could not sign either treaty because of the threat from China and to a limited extent, Pakistan. National security took precedence over Indo-US relations.

Prime Minister Deve Gowda’s tenure (June 1996 – April 1997) was also burdened by India’s robust missile program initiated during Rao’s premiership. In 1992, India successfully tested the Augmented Satellite Launch Vehicle (ASLV) and the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). In 1994, India test fired ‘Prithvi’ and ‘Agni’, two indigenously built ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. Plans to launch Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM), that is ‘Trishul’ and ‘Akash’, and an anti-tank missile (ATM) ‘Nag’, were also undertaken during the Rao premiership. These developments alarmed not only the US Congress and the Clinton Administration but also Japan and the European Union. Despite the growth in bilateral trade and American investment in India, these defense related issues killed any chances of improved Indo-US relations during this period. On the other hand the growing numbers of Non-Resident Indians in the United States had started playing a more active role in promoting India’s national interests. The Indian diaspora was emerging as the single most affluent section of the American society. During Deve Gowda’s tenure, the actual inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) also increased. In 1996, the actual FDI inflow to India was US $ 2383 million, which constituted 21.4 per cent of the FDI approval to India. In 1997, the actual FDI inflow was US $3330 million, and it constituted 21.1 per cent of the total FDI approval to India. Despite all these improved financial statistics we in America did not see any visible improvement in the Indo-American bilateral relations!

Inder Kumar Gujral took over as Prime Minister of a second United Front government on April 21, 1997. There was a degree of improvement in bilateral relations during the Gujral premiership (1997-98), and several factors were responsible for this. First, the ‘Gujral Doctrine’ was successful in India’s international relations, and it helped to improve India’s ties with her neighbors. The U.S. hailed the normalization of relations among South Asian nations, because it considered the region to be a nuclear hotspot. Second, the CTBT issue, which had remained an irritant in bilateral relations since the Rao premiership lost its prominence during Gujral’s tenure. The refusal of the US Senate to approve the CTBT became a liability for the Clinton Administration. Important high-level reciprocal visits took place during Gujral’s short tenure, which was not only indicative of better relations but obviously helped to foster a better understanding between the two countries. Besides Gujral’s official visit to the US, his Industry Minister, Murasoli Maran also went to the U.S. to participate in the “Destination India” program organized to promote US investment and tourism in India.  On the American side, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (the first visit of a US Secretary of State in 14 years), the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, William Daley, and the US Under Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, Thomas Pickering visited India. While everything looked honky-dory, Gujral’s Doctrine was playing havoc with India’s national security. Prime Minister Gujral unilaterally decided to disclose the human assets of Research and Analysis Wing to Pakistan in a gesture of neighborly goodwill. Pakistan wasted no time in liquidating the Indian spies in their country. Thanks to Shri Gujral, Pakistan was successful in mounting a 26/11 type brutal commando operation in Bombay in 2008! I hold Gujral responsible for it.

No more ‘Rice’ please…

We have had Condoleezza Rice for the past eight years and now the prospect of having Susan E Rice for the next eight is not very appetizing. Both have excellent academic credentials and both are politically deaf. When George W Bush took over as the 43rd President of the United States, National Security was not even an issue. The appointment of Dr Condoleezza Rice as the National Security Adviser was hailed as a smart choice. After all, there was always a Colin Powell to take care of things if something went wrong. How wrong we all were. Condi Rice not only screwed up big time but she hid the file on National Intelligence and never admitted her fault. Do we want to repeat the same mistake? Dr Susan Elizabeth Rice, a senior foreign policy adviser to Barack Obama, is a calamity in the waiting. Should Obama become the next President, Susan Rice is bound to get a cabinet position.

Susan Rice was born in Washington DC to Dr Emmett J Rice and Lois Dickson Fitt in 1964. She grew up in DC and attended the National Cathedral for Girls. She earned her undergraduate degree in history in 1986 at Stanford University. She became a Rhodes Scholar the same year and did her masters at New College, Oxford, in 1988. She completed her PhD in International Relations from Oxford in 1990. Dr Rice started her career as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company in the early 1990s. In 1993, she joined the Clinton Administration as a Director for International Organizations and Peacekeeping at the National Security Council. She became a Special Assistant to the President in 1995. Susan Rice took over as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in 1997 and served until the end of Clinton Administration. She is married to Ian Cameron, a TV producer, from Toronto, Canada.

Dr Rice is highly qualified to be the next Secretary of State or the National Security Adviser. That is her biggest problem. She has a perfect pedigree and that brings to her a natural arrogance of a highly qualified scholar. Too many academics have done great damage to America’s Foreign Policy as well as the national security. Susan Rice is a specialist in African Affairs and would therefore come in immediate conflict with the Chinese in Darfur, Sudan. She has no understanding of the ‘Muslim Sensibilities’ and therefore a potential trip-wire in the Middle-East. She is ill disposed towards Europe (excluding United Kingdom) and would isolate India. Rice is not interested in South America and would be a drag for WTO (World Trade Organization) and the Kyoto Protocol. Ironically she has a lot in common with Condi Rice.