The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part XII

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was perceived by Indian voters as a strong and decisive leader in 1998-99. His 13 month long second term plus 6 months as ‘care-taker prime minister’ convinced the people that the country would be safer in his hands. General Elections were held in India from September 5 to October 3, 1999, a few months after the ‘Kargil War’. The BJP-led NDA had won 303 seats in the 543 seat Lok Sabha, thereby securing a comfortable, stable majority. The coalition government that was formed lasted its full term of 5 years – the only non-Congress government to do so. On October 13, 1999, Atal Bihari Vajpayee took oath as Prime Minister of India for the third time. Just a day earlier, General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of Pakistan Army and the main architect of the ‘Kargil War’, seized power in Pakistan in a bloodless coup from a democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. He probably found public support because of the ‘Kargil’ humiliation. This was bad news for India! On December 24, 1999, an Indian Airlines flight IC-814 was hijacked from Nepal by 5 Pakistani terrorists. The hijackers held 189 hostages and demanded the release of 3 dreaded, including Maulana Masood Azhar (founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed), Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh (the killer of The Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl) from the Indian prison. Once a hostage was stabbed to death, Government of India capitulated under public pressure and released the terrorists in exchange for the hostages. India and the world is still paying the price for that error of judgment! The crisis ended on December 31, 1999.

President Bill Clinton visited India from March 19 – 24, 2000. His was the first state visit to India by a US President in 22 years. He became the first President of the United States to visit Bangladesh on March 20, 2000. Clinton also visited Pakistan for a few hours on his way back home. Obviously he had very little interest in Pakistan sponsored terrorism and the spread of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Instead of chasing around the Islamic terrorists in a distant Indian subcontinent, he decided to chase ‘white-bimbos’ right at home in Washington DC. America and the world had to pay a staggering price in blood and treasure just 18 months later on September 11, 2001. Now in 20-20 hindsight, it appears that Vajpayee Administration, Clinton Administration as well as the Bush Administration, all of them failed to see the looming catastrophe in Af-Pak. Aside from terrorism, Clinton-Vajpayee dialogue proved to be a watershed in Indo-US relations. India did not look back till 2008 US elections!

President George W Bush took office on January 20, 2001. He came to power with a soft-corner for India! We thought it was because of Condi Rice, that eventually proved to be a myth. George Bush considered China to be a rival and not a partner. He believed that an alliance with Australia, India, Japan and Singapore would be in the best interest of US national security. He was in the process of developing a consensus for this alliance within his administration when suddenly 9/11 happened. The world changed that day and with that India’s foreign policy became hostage to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. President had little time for any other issue. He became a war-time president. India had no choice but to adjust to the realities on the ground. Vajpayee was the first head of the state to call President Bush and offer assistance. Bush appreciates that gesture till date! As if this was not bad enough, a group of masked terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament on December 31, 2001. The terrorists managed to kill several security guards, but the building was sealed off swiftly and security forces cornered and killed the men, who were later proven to be Pakistan nationals. Although the Government of Pakistan officially condemned the attack, Indian intelligence reports pointed the finger at a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee ordered a mobilization of India’s military forces, and as many as 500,000 servicemen amassed along the international border. Pakistan responded in kind. The Indian subcontinent was heading towards a nuclear exchange!

The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part VII

The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in the evening of the first day of balloting on May21, 1991, stunned the nation and the world. We were in Syracuse, New York at that time, everyone looked shocked and apprehensive. I was not all that shocked because Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv Gandhi were busy playing with fire since 1979 when they brought down successive governments just to return back to power. Both were playing dangerous games with Punjab, Kashmir and Sri Lanka. My reaction to the gruesome murder was that anyone of the above groups could have done that. But that was not my main concern, I prayed for my country and its stability. The voters of India moved towards Congress Party in sympathy and gave them 215 seats to form a coalition government at the center. Mercifully, better sense prevailed in Congress Party and a soft spoken, mild and seventy year old P V Narasimha Rao, a former foreign minister, was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of India on June 21, 1991.

Prime Minister Narasimha Rao was considered a push-over and a weak leader. He faced enormous problems internally as well as internationally. India faced serious challenges from the self-proclaimed Khalistanis of Punjab, the secessionists from Kashmir and the insurgents in Assam. Rao had to face a humiliating balance of payments situation overseas and a bankrupt country, thanks to a personal feud between V P Singh and Rajiv Gandhi. Neither cared about their country enough to put its priorities first! Narasimha Rao brought Dr Manmohan Singh, an economist and a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India as the new Finance Minister of India. Together these two matured and patriotic Indians gave birth to a new country. Rao was called the “Chanakya” of the new India and Manmohan Singh the savior. Neither could have done without the other. This was the new dawn for a modern India!

India was free again, free of Nehrus, free of Gandhis, free of ideologies and free of stupid socialism. I said “Let freedom ring!” no more license-permit raj, no more babus, no more bribes, only the communists remained as traitors. Dr Manmohan Singh with the political support of cunning Narasimha Rao began the process of dismantling the command and control economy of India. While Indians took a sigh of relief, the world watched an emerging India. The duo (Rao & Singh) transformed a shackled country into an economic dynamo. How many Indians realize the curse of Nehru-Gandhi cabal? Hundreds of millions in India waited for decades for this dynasty to move over and let them also breath for a change. This family beggared 99 crore Indians for 1 crore chamchas. This family destroyed our relations with America and the west because of their Fabian ideologies. India, fundamentally a capitalist society, suffered pseudo socialism for 45 years. Who actually gained anything? The ‘Left Front’ will keep reminding us about the horrors of Nehru-Gandhi era!

The United States of America called on countries like India to open their economies for 50 years after the Second World War. Now that the whole world has heard their call, America is getting ready to shut its doors on trade and commerce. Indo-US relations should have taken off after 1991 but remain mired in American love-affair with Pakistan. George Bush senior and his secretary of state James Baker were keen to improve the relationship with India but the Pakistan lobby in the ‘State’ and ‘Defense’ departments fought hard and maintained the status quo. In any case the Bush administration was on its way out when real reforms hit India. Bill Clinton was coming in with all the baggage from Harry Truman to Jimmy Carter. Exciting things were happening in India and elsewhere but the “bubba” was more interested in other things! Clinton wasted more than 5 years before India blasted its way to the international stage. Prime Minister Narasimha Rao danced in front of President Clinton but the man from Hope, Arkansas was busy being a white man and his transatlantic relationships. He ignored Asia and India till May 1998 explosions!

Gitmo should be the home for non-state terrorists

Gitmo (Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp) may have an image problem but it is the right place to hold non-state terrorists. India is demanding the extradition of 20 identified terrorists from Pakistan alleged to have been involved in the 26/11 carnage in Bombay, India. This is more of an emotional demand or request rather than a considered decision. Just imagine that Pakistan does comply and handovers the 20 listed individuals, India would immediately become a target of a potential hostage situation. The hard-core followers of these terrorist organizations would go all out to try and hijack a commercial airliner or some such high-value target. India is a liberal democracy and therefore a soft state for terrorists to exploit at will. We must think long and hard before we issue ultimatums to other countries.

President-elect Barack Obama would do well to reconsider his intentions to close-down Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp. It should not be an ideological decision, instead he should appoint a bipartisan commission to review the merits of keeping or closing down such a facility. What he can do instead is to ban any form of torture at this detention facility by a simple executive order. Independent legal opinion is absolutely necessary to figure out how a non-state terrorist can be tried in a US or Indian court without creating a public relations nightmare for the law enforcement agencies. Campaign rhetoric is fine during the elections but governing is altogether a different ball game. This does not in any way condone the atrocities committed by the Bush administration. What I want is that Obama should THINK about it!

Close GITMO and End Military Commissions

John McCain – Closing Guantanamo Bay

Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Gitmo Detainees

Obama could squander strategic gains!

President-elect Barack Obama has focused primarily on the domestic issues since he entered the Presidential race in 2007. He made ‘War in Iraq’ as his major foreign policy platform and trashed the Bush administration for getting involved without any national interest at stake! Majority of Americans agree with him on that position. He has also proposed a much more robust engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan. People by and large do not dispute his analysis. His position on Iran is far more reconciliatory than most of his colleagues. Obama is very much in tune with the rest on Israel-Palestine conflict. These issues are least of America’s problems. The United States has been facing a growing challenge from China and Russia for the past decade or more. President Bush has managed China rather well but not the Russian threat. Barack Obama appears oblivious of the growing dilemma of dealing with Russia, China and India. He did not find the time to call either of the big-three in the first one week! Instead, he did not waste a day in calling the 9 Western Allies.

Where is the change? All his predecessors for the past 100 years have done the same thing! The world has changed since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The traditional ‘Trans-Atlantic Alliance’ does not have the same value as it did even 10 years back. The growing influence of China is making India and the rest of Asia nervous. Russia is likely to join China in forming an anti-American alliance. India could feel insecure and make unwise commitments in the region. America needs to provide an immediate leadership in South Asia and the Far-East. Barack Obama does not have the luxury of screwing up like Bill Clinton or George W Bush in their first year. What is alarming is the choice of Obama’s advisers on foreign affairs. He appears to have summoned the counsels of Warren Christopher, Sam Nunn, Madeleine Albright and Richard Holbrooke to advise him on his State Department appointments. Add to these luminaries, you have the likes of Senator John Kerry, Tom Daschle and the dim-witted Bill Richardson. What more can you ask for?

Richard Holbrooke – Leslie Gelb-FOREIGN POLICY AFTER 9/11

Richard Holbrooke, Vice Chairman, Perseus / Former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. (GUEST HOST); Leslie Gelb, President, Council on Foreign Relations; Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning, State …