My compliments to UPA for keeping off Sri Lanka

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government must be complemented for helping the Sri Lankan government crush the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) movement. There was so much pressure on his government from their DMK allies to intervene but Dr Singh stood firm. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi is a crook and must be isolated from creating any more problems for Sri Lanka or India. LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran was in some ways DMK creation and was largely sustained by Tamil jingoism in India. Indira Gandhi did not help matters by extending her covert support to LTTE in its early secessionist struggle against Sri Lankan government. India paid a heavy price for that with the life of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Now that the whole sordid drama has come to an end, Tamil sub-nationalism must be dealt with firmly and conclusively. Indian National Congress must develop its own presence in Tamil Nadu.

Bengali and Tamilian politicians do not seem to understand that Burma and Sri Lanka are two pillars of the ‘Gateway to India’. China has been drooling at the unique opportunity by the instability in both Burma and Sri Lanka. Our dumb politicians in either state do not care about India’s national security and play ethnic politics in other countries. India must have deep and widespread bilateral relations with Sri Lanka as well as Burma. We should develop huge trade with both countries even if we have to subsidize our imports. China is waiting in the wings to fill the void in all our neighbouring countries including Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. China has the means and money to stiff India out of all these countries. We are no more a third world country. India is not only growing as a regional power, it is likely to emerge as a major global power by the middle of this century. It is time we take our share of international obligations seriously and not look towards America or Russia for orders.

The evolution of India’s foreign policy – Part XII

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was perceived by Indian voters as a strong and decisive leader in 1998-99. His 13 month long second term plus 6 months as ‘care-taker prime minister’ convinced the people that the country would be safer in his hands. General Elections were held in India from September 5 to October 3, 1999, a few months after the ‘Kargil War’. The BJP-led NDA had won 303 seats in the 543 seat Lok Sabha, thereby securing a comfortable, stable majority. The coalition government that was formed lasted its full term of 5 years – the only non-Congress government to do so. On October 13, 1999, Atal Bihari Vajpayee took oath as Prime Minister of India for the third time. Just a day earlier, General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of Pakistan Army and the main architect of the ‘Kargil War’, seized power in Pakistan in a bloodless coup from a democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. He probably found public support because of the ‘Kargil’ humiliation. This was bad news for India! On December 24, 1999, an Indian Airlines flight IC-814 was hijacked from Nepal by 5 Pakistani terrorists. The hijackers held 189 hostages and demanded the release of 3 dreaded, including Maulana Masood Azhar (founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed), Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh (the killer of The Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl) from the Indian prison. Once a hostage was stabbed to death, Government of India capitulated under public pressure and released the terrorists in exchange for the hostages. India and the world is still paying the price for that error of judgment! The crisis ended on December 31, 1999.

President Bill Clinton visited India from March 19 – 24, 2000. His was the first state visit to India by a US President in 22 years. He became the first President of the United States to visit Bangladesh on March 20, 2000. Clinton also visited Pakistan for a few hours on his way back home. Obviously he had very little interest in Pakistan sponsored terrorism and the spread of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Instead of chasing around the Islamic terrorists in a distant Indian subcontinent, he decided to chase ‘white-bimbos’ right at home in Washington DC. America and the world had to pay a staggering price in blood and treasure just 18 months later on September 11, 2001. Now in 20-20 hindsight, it appears that Vajpayee Administration, Clinton Administration as well as the Bush Administration, all of them failed to see the looming catastrophe in Af-Pak. Aside from terrorism, Clinton-Vajpayee dialogue proved to be a watershed in Indo-US relations. India did not look back till 2008 US elections!

President George W Bush took office on January 20, 2001. He came to power with a soft-corner for India! We thought it was because of Condi Rice, that eventually proved to be a myth. George Bush considered China to be a rival and not a partner. He believed that an alliance with Australia, India, Japan and Singapore would be in the best interest of US national security. He was in the process of developing a consensus for this alliance within his administration when suddenly 9/11 happened. The world changed that day and with that India’s foreign policy became hostage to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. President had little time for any other issue. He became a war-time president. India had no choice but to adjust to the realities on the ground. Vajpayee was the first head of the state to call President Bush and offer assistance. Bush appreciates that gesture till date! As if this was not bad enough, a group of masked terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament on December 31, 2001. The terrorists managed to kill several security guards, but the building was sealed off swiftly and security forces cornered and killed the men, who were later proven to be Pakistan nationals. Although the Government of Pakistan officially condemned the attack, Indian intelligence reports pointed the finger at a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee ordered a mobilization of India’s military forces, and as many as 500,000 servicemen amassed along the international border. Pakistan responded in kind. The Indian subcontinent was heading towards a nuclear exchange!

Micro-finance to the rural women in India

The moment you talk about Micro-finance one immediately thinks of Grameen Bank of Bangladesh and the legendary Muhammad Yunus. Grameen Bank provides credit to the poorest in rural Bangladesh without any collateral. This credit (unsecured loan) is the most cost effective initiative to fight poverty and develop the social infrastructure in rural areas. Grameen Bank of Bangladesh has 7.5 million borrowers, 97 percent of whom are women. It has 2,500 branches in Bangladesh and provides services to more than 80,000 villages. This has been the single biggest achievement of that country since it’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. Unfortunately, because of the image of Bangladesh around the world, people do not give enough credit to such an outstanding achievement. Something similar is being attempted in India.

“Vikram Akula, 39, is the founder of the 10-year-old SKS Microfinance, which offers micro-loans and insurance to poor women in many rural pockets in India”, reports Arthur J Pais in India Abroad (September 12, 2008). Unlike the Grameen Bank that has issued $6.5 billion to a much larger network, SKS Microfinance has provided only $831 million to 2.7 million women in the poorest regions in 16 states across India. Although the interest rate at 25% sounds rather high to a traditional borrower, it is practical if you consider the hassles a poor borrower has to go through to secure any loan. But an unsecured cash loan is dangerous for the borrower without some insurance against a business failure. SKS Microfinance has taken care of that. The company is set up as an entity for profit and therefore has no problems raising large amounts of money. SKS plans to reach 10 million borrowers by 2010.

SKS Microfinance’s Vikram Akula on Mobile Banking

Microfinance in my opinion is the single largest social security network for the vast rural population on the Indian sub-continent. From Afghanistan to Burma and Tibet to Sri Lanka, the entire region has one of the poorest populations on the planet. Money lenders and loan-sharks exploit the rural folks to the extent that the ultimate result is intimidation and violence against the weakest of the population. Grameen Bank of Bangladesh and SKS Microfinance of Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, are the pioneers in Microfinancing. They both have strong language advantage and this model could very easily be replicated in all parts of the Indian sub-continent.

Why no one talks about CNG in America?

CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) is a substitute for gasoline (petrol) for auto-industry in America and elsewhere in the world. It is considered to be a far more environmentally clean fuel compared to any other auto-fuel available. Then how come nobody talks about it in the United States of America? The answer is simple. This is one of the many areas of clean environment that America lags behind, even Pakistan! The media in this country would rather talk about John Edward’s (former Democratic presidential candidate) extramarital affair than anything meaningful like energy and environment. On top of that, there are jokers like Lou Dobbs of CNN who clench their teeth every evening and lecture the world about the virtues of this ‘Great Country’. Some Nerve! It is even more shameful to swallow all the garbage coming out of the media and be lectured about our responsibilities towards mother earth. Are you telling me that the likes of Al Gore are not aware of this hypocrisy?

“Natural Gas, in the form of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), has been used as a transportation fuel in vehicles for more than 60 years around the world. Comprised of about 95% methane, its clean burning properties, abundant supply and relatively low cost have made it a popular and environmentally sensitive fuel choice for drivers in Europe, Russia, South America, Australia and New Zealand, and the United States and Canada. There are over 1 million Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) on the road worldwide with thousands of public, fast-fill refueling stations to support them. Across Canada, there are about 120 stations that serve over 20,000 NGVs in most of the more densely populated areas across the country.” – Union Gas Limited

CNG is used in Canada as an economical auto-fuel since it is a substantial producer of natural gas. Canadian auto-industry has developed CNG-fueled truck and bus engines. In California, CNG is used extensively in local city and county buses. There are 90 public fueling stations in Southern California. Italy has the largest number of CNG vehicles in Europe and 4th largest in the world. Argentina and Brazil are two countries with largest fleets of CNG vehicles. CNG has grown into one of the major fuel sources used in car engines in Bangladesh, India, Iran and Pakistan. The use of CNG is mandated for the public transport system in New Delhi, India. The DTC (Delhi Transport Corporation) operates the world’s largest fleet of CNG buses. According to the International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles, Pakistan has the second-largest number of Natural Gas Vehicles. How many people around the world are aware of all this information and talk about it?

Are you happy Mr Jinnah?

Muhammad Ali Jinnah, leader of the ‘All India Muslim League’, wanted a separate country for the Muslims of the ‘Indian Sub-continent’. Instead of getting a country, he got 3 countries having significant Muslim populations. Before the ‘Partition of India’, the population of the sub-continent was probably 450 million people. One third, or 150 million people, of the population of ‘Undivided India’ was Muslim. After the partition, West Pakistan had a population of roughly 60 million, East Pakistan about 40 million, and they left behind 50 million poorer Muslims in India. Today the Muslim population of the sub-continent is: 165 million people in Pakistan, 150 million people in India and approximately 135 million people in Bangladesh. A total of 450 million Muslims (one and a half times the total population of America) live on the Indian sub-continent. In other words, in a ‘United India’, their population would be about one third with very significant political voice. Instead, what you have is a divided and diminished ‘Muslim Voice’! Is this what you wanted Mr Muhammad Ali Jinnah?

If you are happy, I am happy for you. But I do not get this impression. Last week, August 1, 2008, Husain Haqqani (Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US), appeared on the ‘Charlie Rose’ show with his wife, Farahnaz Ispahani and throughout the interview they were defending their country and their government without much success. Charlie was literally scolding them both and I kind of felt bad and decided to write this piece. President Bush, met with the Pakistani Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, on Monday, July 28, 2008 at the White House in Washington. He is believed to have leaned heavily on Gilani to clean up the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) of Pakistan or face ‘serious action’ by the United States. This is quite humiliating for a visiting head of state. Besides, what can Gilani do? He is only filling in for the Bhutto family and does not have his own political base. Even if Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister at this time, she wouldn’t have been able to control the ISI either. To the best of my knowledge, ISI in Pakistan is the third leg of the political power, the second being the all powerful military. Pakistan needs to do some very heavy lifting.

Today Pakistan stands at the cross-roads as never before in their 60 years of brief history. President Bush has become very distrustful of Pakistan’s intent and would continue to force it to make unpleasant choices till he leaves the office. Once he leaves the office, the next President of the United States would be much more impatient with Pakistan compared to George Bush. If John McCain becomes the President, he would be forced by a ‘Democratic Congress’ to take quick action. On the other hand, if Obama is the next President, he has already stated that he would take unilateral action against the ‘Tribal Areas’ of Pakistan. General Pervez Musharraf faced similar choices after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. He was shrewd enough to play both sides, the Talibans and the Americans. Now there are no such choices available. The only saving grace for Pakistan is China that has some leverage. The question is, would China spend enough political capital with United States to find some breathing room for their long-term ally? Very difficult to count on!

Charlie Rose in conversation with Pakistan’s Ambassador Husain Haqqani & his wife Farahnaz Ispahani