Pashtunistan could become Obama’s Waterloo!

President Barack Obama could potentially relate to a word like ‘Waterloo’ but ‘Pashtunistan’ could be Latin to him. This is a dirty word in Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan, but this is the land where Taliban rules! Pashtunistan is a large area between Pakistan and Afghanistan where 41 million Pashtuns live. This entire region has already become a nightmare for the world but it threatens the very existence of Pakistan at this moment. Barack Obama administration is too busy fooling-around with internal squabbles to pay serious attention to this growing tumor.

The United States of America and President Obama have multiple options available to them in 2009 as far as Afghanistan-Pakistan is concerned. The first option and the most tempting of all is to say, “to heck with it” and leave the region completely like they did in 1989-92. What happened then? Mujahideen government took power in April 1992 in Kabul, Afghanistan. A civil war followed in 1993 and finally Taliban conquered Kandahar, Afghanistan in 1994. This was followed by Herat in 1995 and finally Jalalabad and Kabul in 1996. Taliban ruled Afghanistan from that point forward. Al-Qaida soon followed, planned and executed 9/11 thereafter!

The second option for the Obama administration is to stay the course and loose Pakistan month by month till the Taliban takes over the government in Islamabad, Pakistan. What are the implications of that for the United States? Taliban and therefore Al-Qaida rule in Pakistan means their access to the nuclear bomb or at least a dirty bomb and its potential of reaching the continental United States sometime within the first term of President Barack Obama. This scenario is not only feasible but highly probable and therefore the third option is being discussed.

Richard Holbrooke, Obama’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan-Pakistan, is in the region at this point discussing the third option with the leaders of Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. This option contemplates doubling the presence of American troops from 33,000 to 60,000 or more in Afghanistan and tries to eliminate the hard-core leadership of Taliban and Al-Qaida. This would mean a much higher cost in American ‘blood and treasure’ with no guarantee of any success anytime soon. This option also counts on a substantial support from the Pakistani civilian as well as military leadership. This clearly indicates that Americans have learnt nothing in 60 years!

What is likely to happen in FATA?

What ROME is to the Christians, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan is to the terrorists. It has become the high-seat of Taliban and Al-Qaida orthodoxy. “America will not win the war in Afghanistan by taking it across the border into Pakistan’s tribal areas” – The Economist, September 18, 2008. You can bet your ass on that. “One desperate measure adopted by America in response has been to attack the presumed bases in Pakistan’s tribal areas from which militants mount cross-border operations.” This shows complete lack of understanding of the problem by Americans as well as NATO forces. History tells us that no force has ever prevailed in that part of the world. Former President Pervez Musharraf was absolutely right.

The 9/11 attacks, Americans and Barack Obama…

The tragedy of 9/11 has become a movement rather than a memorial day. The attacks galvanized the world opinion in favor of the United States and condemned the perpetrators. However, some Americans wanted to own the tragedy and not let others grieve. This over-reaction alienated a large section of people, specially the minorities and the immigrant population. In 2001, the shock and emotions were understandable and the non-Americans got out of the way and at times bore the brunt of the American anger. It has been seven years since that tragic day but some ‘White Americans’ are not ready to let go. The hyper-emotions now on display are making a lot of people uncomfortable. Americans have taken their revenge on the vast populations of Iraq and Afghanistan. Tens of thousands have been slaughtered but the carnage goes on. The United States has to stop at some point of time and start the reconciliation process. This kind of display of outrage every year is not helpful and institutionalizes hatred. World has lived through greater tragedies! It is time to move on.

More than 90 countries lost citizens in the attacks on the World Trade Center. But their families have not been given space to mourn their dead. Instead, you see a certain group of ‘White Americans’ who have dominated the air-waves (specially middle class white women) since then and wouldn’t let go. There is certain amount of ‘Jingoism’ involved here and the politicians are ready to cash on those sentiments. Even the blacks who lost their loved ones barely get any mention. This whole episode is taking the form of an ‘Islamic Victimhood’ and is not good for a secular society like America. Today, all presidential candidates have to publicly show their patriotism which should be measurable. It’s like the more hot-dogs you eat, greater is your patriotism and of course you have to prominently display your flag-pin. The whole thing is so bizarre, it must be stopped before it gets out of hand. A good sensible American like Senator John McCain has also joined the race and does not miss an opportunity to display his patriotism. Winning an election at the cost of governance is not an appealing prospect. Should Senator McCain win the election, how does he plan to govern with a solid Democratic Majority in Congress?

Barack Obama appears so far removed from all this ‘American Nationalism’ that yesterday when he visited the ‘Ground Zero’ in Manhattan, New York, he looked like a foriegner rather than a participant. Is it really his fault? In such atmosphere, there is no space for any ethnicity forget about a black leadership! For the last 20 years we have watched two Americas living apart in two different neighborhood, unaware of the sensibilities of each other. So much so that it is easier for a Bobby Jindal (Indian descent) to be elected a Governor of a Southern State (Lousiana) rather than a Barack Obama (African descent), aspiring to be a president of the United State of America.

George W Bush is no bumbling idiot…

President George W Bush is not a very well liked politician these days, but he certainly is not a bumbling idiot either. American bilateral relations with China and India have never been better. These two countries account for 35% of the world population. In other words, United States is interacting with more people in this world than in it’s entire history. Put it another way, President Bush has brought more people in the world’s main-stream than any US President ever! Boy! This would make me sound like a hard core Republican. Unfortunately, this is a painful fact that can not be denied. George Bush’s initiative in Africa is absolutely unprecedented, and even the democrats acknowledge that. President Clinton was far more diplomatic when he talked to China, India and Russia. George Bush is much more direct and uninhibited. He has a folksy style of talking to his counter parts in China and India, but their leaders understand his transparent heart. On the flip side, he has botched up the relationship with Putin and Russia. History would judge him accordingly.

Iraq War would define George W Bush’s presidency but he can not tell the truth to the people of his country or the world. It would be a diplomatic calamity. He knows that and his administration understands that. Only he has to carry the burden quietly and that is the role of a US President. My understanding of the Iraq War is that soon after September 11, 2001, the US intelligence reports indicated the Saudi Arabia’s hand behind the funding of ‘Islamic Militants’. It was unthinkable to go after Saudi Arabia directly for two reasons. First, it would have inflamed the entire ‘Muslim World’ and second, it might have disrupted the energy supplies to the entire world. The prudent thing was to find a large footprint close the Saudi Arabia and create permanent bases to keep Saudis under surveillance. Iraq was an easier choice compared to Iran or any other large country close to Saudi Arabia. The next President of the United States would have to spend a lot of time learning from President Bush and not make the same mistake that George Bush himself made – ignoring Clinton.

Saudi Arabia should remain a bigger concern to the world, compared to Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan or the entire Indian sub-continent. Every sundry terrorist organization in the world is directly or indirectly being funded by ‘Saudi Petro-dollars’. There are under-world conduits like Dawood Ibrahim, sitting pretty in Karachi, Pakistan and bank-rolling Hurriyat Conference in Kashmir. Where do you think the money is coming from? Some people paddle the theory that it is the Narco-Drug-Nexus that is pumping in the money. If that was the case, America would have taken care of it. The problem is that atleast the Indo-US intelligence has finally figured out that it is Saudi Arabia money that is funding all large scale insurgencies. Be it Iran-Iraq border, Afghanistan-Pakistan border or even India -Pakistan border, it is the ‘Wahhabi Saudi Face’ that is behind all Islamic-terror. Sooner or later, the US and the rest of the world would have to go into Saudi Arabia and dismantle the ‘Wahhabi Terror’ network. That day the Iraq War would look like a minor law and order problem. I wonder if the next president of the United States of America would have the balls to even contemplate such a scenario! I very much doubt it!

Once again Condi Rice was caught flat-footed…

The Russian invasion of it’s neighboring country Georgia came as quite a shock to the whole world, not to mention the government of the United States of America. Once again Condoleezza Rice was caught napping at the wheel. As it turns out, there were no contingency plans for such an eventuality. If Russia decides to sack Tbilisi (Capital of Georgia) and occupy it, nobody is going to do anything about it. Besides passing some toothless resolutions at the UN Security Council, Europe and the rest of the world would just watch helplessly and let a free democracy go down once again. This is not the kind of ‘New World Order’ that we all were looking forward to.

What kind of a message does it send to the rest of the world? Small countries like Georgia who can not defend themselves against large hegemonies like Russian Federation, would resort to developing some form of Nuclear Deterrent. It is incumbent on the sole-superpower like the United States to provide some sort of security umbrella to nation states like Georgia. European Union and NATO are once again exposed as nothing more than rich country clubs that would bemoan such aggression but do little else. Does it not remind you a similar situation just before the Second World War? The US Department of State must re-think it’s role!

Condoleezza Rice, the current Secretary of State, reminds us of Cyrus Vance who was the Secretary of State during Jimmy Carter’s presidency in late 1970s. Vance was also caught napping when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979. The job of a Secretary of State is to be ahead of the curve, anticipate such eventualities and be prepared with plans to deal with such situations. The budget seems to be yet another problem for the Department of State. The department has an annual budget of only $35 billion as against $480 billion for the Department of Defense. This shows misplaced priorities of the government of United States. Out of this $35 billions, close to $15 billion goes towards the dole-outs to the dictators around the world. There is not enough money left to develop full-fledged offices for each and every country in the world. That is the job of a sole-superpower of the world.