Are you happy Mr Jinnah?

Muhammad Ali Jinnah, leader of the ‘All India Muslim League’, wanted a separate country for the Muslims of the ‘Indian Sub-continent’. Instead of getting a country, he got 3 countries having significant Muslim populations. Before the ‘Partition of India’, the population of the sub-continent was probably 450 million people. One third, or 150 million people, of the population of ‘Undivided India’ was Muslim. After the partition, West Pakistan had a population of roughly 60 million, East Pakistan about 40 million, and they left behind 50 million poorer Muslims in India. Today the Muslim population of the sub-continent is: 165 million people in Pakistan, 150 million people in India and approximately 135 million people in Bangladesh. A total of 450 million Muslims (one and a half times the total population of America) live on the Indian sub-continent. In other words, in a ‘United India’, their population would be about one third with very significant political voice. Instead, what you have is a divided and diminished ‘Muslim Voice’! Is this what you wanted Mr Muhammad Ali Jinnah?

If you are happy, I am happy for you. But I do not get this impression. Last week, August 1, 2008, Husain Haqqani (Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US), appeared on the ‘Charlie Rose’ show with his wife, Farahnaz Ispahani and throughout the interview they were defending their country and their government without much success. Charlie was literally scolding them both and I kind of felt bad and decided to write this piece. President Bush, met with the Pakistani Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, on Monday, July 28, 2008 at the White House in Washington. He is believed to have leaned heavily on Gilani to clean up the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) of Pakistan or face ‘serious action’ by the United States. This is quite humiliating for a visiting head of state. Besides, what can Gilani do? He is only filling in for the Bhutto family and does not have his own political base. Even if Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister at this time, she wouldn’t have been able to control the ISI either. To the best of my knowledge, ISI in Pakistan is the third leg of the political power, the second being the all powerful military. Pakistan needs to do some very heavy lifting.

Today Pakistan stands at the cross-roads as never before in their 60 years of brief history. President Bush has become very distrustful of Pakistan’s intent and would continue to force it to make unpleasant choices till he leaves the office. Once he leaves the office, the next President of the United States would be much more impatient with Pakistan compared to George Bush. If John McCain becomes the President, he would be forced by a ‘Democratic Congress’ to take quick action. On the other hand, if Obama is the next President, he has already stated that he would take unilateral action against the ‘Tribal Areas’ of Pakistan. General Pervez Musharraf faced similar choices after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. He was shrewd enough to play both sides, the Talibans and the Americans. Now there are no such choices available. The only saving grace for Pakistan is China that has some leverage. The question is, would China spend enough political capital with United States to find some breathing room for their long-term ally? Very difficult to count on!

Charlie Rose in conversation with Pakistan’s Ambassador Husain Haqqani & his wife Farahnaz Ispahani